050
FXUS65 KBOU 080851
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
251 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.
- SUMMERLIKE WARMTH AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. COOL, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST OF THE PLAINS REACHING UP TO THE HIGH 60S
TO LOW 70S. WITH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE
(<20% CHANCE) OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER, WITH A BIT MORE STABILITY ON
FRIDAY, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TREK
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY
BUILDING UP TO 200-600 J/KG, WITH EBWD AROUND 30 KTS AND DCAPE
VALUES UP TO 1200 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
50 MPH AT TIMES, AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. BEHIND THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH,
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NEXT
WEEK, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS >80F ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY(S) OF THE
WEEK WILL BE MONDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY (DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE), WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH UP TO THE LOW 90S IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. MONITORING FOR ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY MONDAY
WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW TEENS,
WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HOWEVER, MUCH-NEEDED RECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CONCERNS AT BAY FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HOUR FOR DEN AND BJC,
WITH APA LIKELY STAYING DRY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BRIEFLY BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THAT, EXPECT LIGHT NE WINDS, BECOMING
VRB AT TIMES THROUGH 10Z, WITH LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS)
DRAINAGE WINDS RETURNING. IN THE MORNING, A QUICK WIND TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE DRAINAGE WINDS RETURN BY 09Z/10Z, WITH WINDS AS STRONG AS
15 KTS AT TIMES.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S TONIGHT, HI-RES GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FAVOR FOG FORMING. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE TAKEN FEW004 OUT
OF THE TAF. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE (20% CHANCE) OF
IT FORMING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MAI
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