846
FXUS65 KBOU 260848
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
248 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AND POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE/NO
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL
THREAT OF FLOODING MAINLY OVER THE EAST TROUBLESOME BURN ACAR.
- WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
- AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THERE IS A WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCE ON SATELLITE WHICH IS OVER NERN
AZ EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THRU THIS AFTN AS ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE QUICK MOVING,
HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. ACROSS THE PLAINS IT WILL BE MORE
STABLE WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS THRU THE AFTN HOURS. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70'S TO MID 80'S.
ON WED, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE WRN US AS A BLOCKING
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SFC, THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP ALONG SRN AREAS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY
AFTN. PWAT'S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS WITH
SBCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTN. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE IS RATHER LOW. BLENDED
SOLUTIONS HAVE RATHER HIGH POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY AFTN.
SOME OF THE HI RES DATA IS FOCUSING BEST CHC FOR STORMS IN AND
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES POSSIBLY TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT, STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS WHERE STORMS DO OCCUR. HIGHS ON WED
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70'S.
ON THU, THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINS OVER THE WRN US. AS A RESULT THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT. AT THE LOWER LEVELS, THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST WITH PWAT'S ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINING NEAR AN
INCH. MEANWHILE, SBCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTN.
OVERALL, BELIEVE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON THU, HOWEVER,
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCT SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AS FOR HIGHS, READINGS BE IN THE MID
70'S TO LOWER 80'S ACROSS NERN CO.
BY FRI, THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR THE WRN US LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRI
AFTN. ACROSS THE PLAINS, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. IN ADDITION,
SBCAPE WILL RISE WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NERN CO.
MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. THUS EXPECT
STRONGER STORMS FRI AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
FOR SAT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. AT THE SFC, THERE WILL BE A
LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN WY INTO ERN CO WITH A PSEUDO DRYLINE
SETTING UP. SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS NERN CO
WITH DECENT BULK SHEAR. THUS I WOULD EXPECT SCT SVR STORMS SAT AFTN
INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUN, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SW. THERE WILL
STILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SBCAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS IN THE AFTN SO A FEW SVR STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER EXPECT LESS TSTM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS WHICH LED TO BRIEF GUSTS
FROM 40 TO 50 MPH EARLIER. OVERNIGHT, WILL HAVE SOUTH WINDS WITH
A FEW GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH THRU 09Z. BY 14Z TUE, SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AT APA AND DIA WITH GUSTS FRM 25 TO 30 MPH THRU 18Z.
AFTER 18Z, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH. AT BJC EXPECT LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS BY 07Z WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 09Z. ON TUE, WINDS AT BJC WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY 18Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THRU THE AFTN.
MEANWHILE, IT APPEARS THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ON TUE LATE IN THE AFTN THRU WED EVENING. THUS HAVE KEPT
PROB30'S IN FOR APA AND DIA FROM 00Z THRU 04Z. BJC MAY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS EARLY AS 20Z SO HAVE STARTED THE
PROB30 EARLIER.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK
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