052
FXUS65 KBOU 280540
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1140 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THURSDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AND IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING, WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
LARGER SCALE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER COLORADO IS AIDING IN
TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALREADY VISIBLE ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND A A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (AS OF
12PM). THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE
PUMPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY
SATURATED MOISTURE PROFILE AND PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH VALUES
BETWEEN 150-200% OF NORMAL. WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER
AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS (BEST SHOT FOR THIS
WOULD BE FOR AREAS IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE SHOWER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST), BUT THIS COULD BE LIMITED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, WITH 60S AND 70S FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AND URBAN
CORRIDOR, AND 50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. COULD SEE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THURSDAY
OUTSIDE OF TODAY'S UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY'S, WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF SHEAR, NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO HAVE
MUCH POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE, BUT WITH ELEVATED PWAT VALUES STILL
REMAINING 150%-180% OF NORMAL, AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG,
COULD SEE A FEW DECENT SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY
START TO MAKE A MOVE AS IT STARTS TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
ROCKIES. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH (ENSEMBLES SHOW
PWATS RANGING BETWEEN 100-150% OF NORMAL) AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE
TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE NOW EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY WILL BRING THE BEST SHOT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL
AS WE FINALLY SEE AN UPTICK IN SHEAR AS 500 MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KTS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ROCKIES. THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 60%-80% OF NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR
NORTHERN CORNER TO SIT ADJACENT TO A DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S ARE EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION BECOMING
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP, AND IF THE
DRYLINE PUSHES ANY FURTHER WEST, THESE CHANCES WOULD BECOME MUCH
HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED, WE COULD SEE
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT BECOMES OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, BUT WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING DRIER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT DRAINAGE/SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED AND CEILINGS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN A BKN060-100 OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SOME GUIDANCE DOES STILL TRY TO DEVELOP LOWER CIGS AFTER
09Z THOUGH I AM SKEPTICAL OF ANY WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT PROFILES WOULD
STILL SUGGEST A CHANCE OF SOME FG IMPACTS CLOSER TO 12Z THIS
MORNING THOUGH THE OVERALL CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IS
LOW (20-30%).
WINDS ON THURSDAY SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.
THE LATEST CAMS ARE FAIRLY BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE A MODEST CAP INDICATED ON MOST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADDED IN SOME PROB30S FOR -TSRA, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES GENERALLY BETWEEN 21-03Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...HIRIS
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