244
FXUS65 KBOU 291815
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1215 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25.
- STORM CHANCES SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY, WITH STRONG STORMS AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A FEW WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN DENVER
METRO EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH HAVE PRODUCED MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH STEADY MOIST/EASTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
SHOULD AVOID THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, WITH A WEAK CYCLONE
NOTED NORTH OF ERIE... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ARRIVING SOMETIME
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUALLY MORE DEFINED LEE
TROUGH/LEE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR
DURING THE DAY, LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF A DRYLINE (OR AT LEAST
JUST SOME SORT OF SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY). SURFACE DEW POINTS
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED A BIT BY THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LINGERING STRATUS AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. SPC'S MARGINAL
RISK SEEMS APPROPRIATE UNTIL WE HAVE A CLEARER IDEA HOW THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS EVOLVES LATER THIS MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL FINALLY SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE, AS
THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CA/NV BORDER FINALLY MANAGES TO
EJECT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE INTO CO/WY. WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, LEADING TO LIMITED
CHANCES OF STORMS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT/OROGRAPHIC LIFT... WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. I SUPPOSE THERE'S A
CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER IF WE MANAGE TO HOLD ONTO SOME
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THAT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BY SUNDAY, WHERE IT THEN CAMPS OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AS IT
GOES THROUGH A PERIOD OF DEEPENING EARLY IN THE WEAK, BEFORE
FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN. IN COLORADO, THE ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO
ESTABLISH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS,
THOUGH THE CHANCES OF ANY MEANINGFUL, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN LOW. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION STILL REMAINS IN PLACE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING NEEDED TO
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME INSTABILITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARER SKIES ARE STARTING TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE WARMING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH
SOME CUMULUS VISIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVDE.
DUE TO THESE FACTORS, HAVE UPGRADED TO A PROB30 FOR
-TSRA VS THE PREVIOUS -SHRA ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS, WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35KTS. DESPITE SHOWERS/STORM
POTENTIAL LOWERING BY 0Z, WE EXPECT SOME OUTFLOWS TO IMPACT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A PROB30 FOR VRB WINDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BEYOND THE OUTFLOW POTENTIAL, EXPECTING SOME SORT OF DRAINAGE TO
TAKE HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
WESTERLY AROUND 14Z SATURDAY MORNING. STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
LESS FOR SATURDAY (BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS), BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON (AFTER 20-21Z).
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...9
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