785
FXUS65 KBOU 291855
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1255 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON, STRONGEST NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
- STORM CHANCES SHIFT NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
- DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY, WITH A
RETURN TO DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON
STARTING MONDAY UNDER CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THIS MORNING'S CLOUD COVER HAS PROVED INCONSEQUENTIAL WITH REGARD TO
TODAY'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, WITH THE BULK OF THE LOW STRATUS
HAVING DISSIPATED (EVEN IN THE EASTERN PLAINS) AND DENVER ACARS
SOUNDINGS INDICATING WE'RE ALREADY ERODING THE CAPPING INVERSION AT
~750MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
CLEARING WAS MOST ACCELERATED, AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ON THE
MOISTURE FRONT, THERE'S A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE DENVER METRO COINCIDENT WITH THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY,
WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-70 MAINTAINING ELEVATED VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF
INITIATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, THE
(MARGINAL) THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IS REASONABLY CONFINED TO
OUR NORTHERN PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH LIMITED SHEAR MAY
BUFFER THE DURATION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND TAPER THE HAIL THREAT IN
PARTICULAR, INSTEAD FAVORING OUTFLOW WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS 40
TO 50 MPH.
DRIER AIR WILL BECOME A DRIVING FACTOR IN THE REDUCTION OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY UNDER A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME, AS THE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES EAST AND WEAKENS.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RRFS/HRRR IS PERHAPS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DRYING, EVEN A MORE MODEST
REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 30'S WOULD INDICATE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE I-25 AND I-70 CORRIDORS (EXCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS). MEANWHILE, THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS (500-1,000 J/KG ML CAPE) AND SUPPORT
BETTER COVERAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS BEST FARTHER EAST WHERE SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY, RISING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE, LEADING TO A RETURN
TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. AN ISOLATED AND LIGHT TERRAIN-
INDUCED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAR FROM ELUCIDATING FOR NEXT WEEK, FAVORING
A GENERALLY LIGHT ZONAL TO SW FLOW ALOFT (ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK) AND LEAVING SOME ROOM FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO MONDAY/TUESDAY. WITH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND SOME GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK, ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLAY TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAYS, ALTHOUGH
THERE'S LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION STILL REMAINS IN PLACE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING NEEDED TO
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME INSTABILITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARER SKIES ARE STARTING TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE WARMING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH
SOME CUMULUS VISIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
DUE TO THESE FACTORS, HAVE UPGRADED TO A PROB30 FOR
-TSRA VS THE PREVIOUS -SHRA ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS, WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-35KTS. DESPITE SHOWERS/STORM POTENTIAL LOWERING BY
0Z, WE EXPECT SOME OUTFLOWS TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A PROB30 FOR VRB WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
BEYOND THE OUTFLOW POTENTIAL, EXPECTING SOME SORT OF DRAINAGE TO
TAKE HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
WESTERLY AROUND 14Z SATURDAY MORNING. STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
LESS FOR SATURDAY (BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS), BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON (AFTER 20-21Z).
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...9
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