978
FXUS65 KBOU 302021
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
221 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
- DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY.
- A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF NNE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED N-S THETA-E BOUNDARY OR PSEUDO
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
FORT MORGAN, DOWN TO LIMON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
CUMULUS EAST OF DENVER AS WELL AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALREADY TAKING PLACE OVER THE FOOTHILLS, I-25 CORRIDOR, AND HIGH
TERRAIN. TO THE NORTHEAST, DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 50S,
LOW STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO DISSOLVE, AND SBCAPE IS ALREADY >1000 J/KG
AND INCREASING.
THE LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS PLACED
COLORADO'S NORTHEASTERMOST COUNTIES UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS, AS WELL AS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK THAT
EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS WELD COUNTY AND DIA. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RISK WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS (AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL) OCCURING
EAST OF MORGAN COUNTY AND FAR NE COLORADO. A FEW LANDSPOUTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE SURFACE VORTICITY PRESENT, AS WELL AS
RELATIVELY LOW (~900-1300FT AGL) LCLS IN NE COLORADO. STORM MOTION
WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWARDS, WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TAKING
ON A NORTHEAST-EAST MOTION COMPONENT.
TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE UNEVENTFUL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISSIPATES
AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-
AVERAGE, WITH LOW 80S OVER THE DENVER METRO AREA. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS, AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES IN THE 0.50-0.80 INCH RANGE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THERE WILL BE 40-60% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE VERTICAL PROFILE,
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS, WHICH WOULD HINDER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, IF LOW STRATUS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OFF EARLY
ENOUGH ON TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SBCAPE
(>1000 J/KG) FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT IT IS UNCLEAR
IF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, OR IF
FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN ZONAL. NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW IS VEERING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE, WHICH IS HELPING TO HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY FORMING, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS THE
DENVER AREA. WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE EAST,
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THEY TRAVEL EASTWARD. BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER
STORMS. DRIER AIR IS NEARBY, OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND
WESTWARD, SO ONLY EXPECT ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 00Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
06Z. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH ONLY HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
AVIATION...12
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