998
FXUS65 KBOU 150009
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
609 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70.
- TEMPERATURES HEAT BACK UP NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY REACHING THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN WYOMING
CURRENTLY WITH A STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN COLORADO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-70
ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN CLEARING SOME THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE IT WAS SUNNIER THAN AREAS TO THE
NORTHERN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUB-SEVERE.
ON MONDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER LIGHT SUBSIDENT FLOW
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN US TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS JET STREAM WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM
VANCOUVER TO NEBRASKA AND COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION LEADING TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRYING CONDITIONS. THIS LEADS TO TWO
CONCERNS AND THOSE ARE HEAT IMPACTS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM BUT HEAT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED. THE HIGH
WILL BE AROUND 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. ON WEDNESDAY, IF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY COME THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOLDS
OFF, TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20%) THAT THE COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BY 5-10
DEGREES. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE COLD
FRONT TIMING. IF THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO ARRIVE, STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 6-10 PERCENT, THERE WOULD BE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE AS LOW AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE AVOIDED. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO (80%) APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEFORE HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AGAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WET PERIOD
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT I'LL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
EAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND AS SUCH, WINDS ARE A MIX OF
N-NNE OVER THE THREE AIRPORTS, WITH SOME STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
15-20KT AT KDEN AND KAPA. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TURN ENE-E AS
THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WASH OUT TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS, BUT THEY HAVE
MOSTLY CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OFF AND TO THE EAST.
THE LOW CEILING POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT HAS DECREASED, WITH ONLY ABOUT
A 25% CHANCE THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER BELOW 4,000FT. HOWEVER, SOME
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS (2,000-3,000FT) CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT,
MOSTLY BEFORE 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME VIRGA SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 23Z
AND 03Z, BUT WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
TAF DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL SUBSIDENT REGIME IN
PLACE.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...AA
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