441
FXUS65 KBOU 191931
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
131 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS, PARK COUNTY, AND PALMER DIVIDE TODAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND
MOST OF NEXT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. DENVER ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
A HALF INCH WITH A STRONG INVERSION. EXPECT THIS TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO PARK COUNTY AND THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
THOSE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT BREAKING THE CAP.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A SURGE OF EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WILL PRODUCE GOOD SHEAR AS WELL. BULK SHEAR
(0-6KM) REACHES 40-50 KNOTS, ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. DRY AIR WILL BE JUST TO
THE WEST, OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND THE MOIST UNSTABLE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
COULD CHANGE IF THE EASTERLY PUSH IS STRONGER AND DEEPER THAN
EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT WINDOW LOOKS TO BE 3PM TO 7PM. AFTER
THIS, THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR SUNDAY, WE'LL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASS NORTH OF COLORADO
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. A FEW OF THE STORMS
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE SEVERE AGAIN AS MLCAPE REACHES 2000 J/KG.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER.
FOR NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE US/MEXICO BORDER WILL
INTENSIFY WHILE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE SET UP NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY AIR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNCERTAINTY BEING HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
80S MOST DAYS WITH TUESDAY POSSIBLY BEING THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z TONIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRATUS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A BIT STRONGER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS OCCURRING AT KDEN. THESE
GUSTS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN E AND THEN SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (< 12 KTS) EXPECTED. A FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL THREE SITES AROUND 03Z TO 05Z
BRINGING BRIEFLY GUSTY NE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE VRB WITH PERHAPS A
LEAN TO THE N FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW IS A BIT OF A MESSY FORECAST OVERALL. THERE COULD BE
STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH IN THE MORNING AND THEN GUSTY WINDS AND/OR
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS AND INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MORNING WOULD LIKELY BRING SOME STRATUS TO
THE THREE SITES. THERE IS STILL A SMALL BUT DECREASING CHANCE THAT
THE LOWEST CLOUDS DO NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY WEST THROUGH THE
DENVER METRO. THE HRRR, NAM NEST, AS WELL AS NAM MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT SOME LOW STRATUS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TOMORROW
MORNING- MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z. WE HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS
TO BKN015 THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AT KDEN AND KBJC WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILINGS AT KAPA TO SHOW THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE (20%)
OF FOG AT KDEN TONIGHT.
A PSEUDO-FRONT/BOUNDARY WITH N WINDS TO NORTH OF IT AND SW WINDS
TO THE SOUTH OF IT SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KAPA TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT NE
WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TOMORROW. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE OFF WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY EXPECTED JUST TO THE EAST OF KDEN. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE AT THE NEXT TAF. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORMS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ211>214-
217-218.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...MV
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