292
FXUS65 KBOU 200837
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
237 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS TODAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WE'VE GOT QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY AHEAD OF US, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS,
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR OUR PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
WASHINGTON/IDAHO. AS THIS SYSTEM TREKS EAST, IT WILL HELP FLATTEN
THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THIS PAST WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL
STRENGTHEN, WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO 9-15%. A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM TODAY.
FOR THE PLAINS, A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AHEAD
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVECT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
REACHING UP TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
DUE TO THIS, EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, WHICH COULD AFFECT
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER,
MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS THE PLAINS WARMING UP TO THE LOW
90S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF A
BOUNDARY EAST OF THE DENVER METRO AND TRACK EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE THEY WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
ALL HAZARDS. MLCAPE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 2500-3000 J/KG, WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, VERY
LARGE HAIL, AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5",
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A TORNADO THREAT,
PARTICULARLY FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS, WHERE LCLS WILL BE
LOWER AND SRH OF ~150 M2/S2 IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS
TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6-8 PM. HOWEVER, RECENT CAMS DO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXITING WYOMING
AND ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION, WITH DECENT SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES INDICATING LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE FOR THE PLAINS WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES.
FOR MONDAY, THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY DO FOR THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER (BESIDES THE GEFS), WITH FORECASTED HIGHS NOW IN
THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DEN AND APA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRATUS DECK COMING IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE MORNING.
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN REGARDS TO WIND DIRECTION FOR TODAY
AS A DENVER CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS (08Z-10Z). THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
TO DEN AND APA FOR A PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ENE (AND POSSIBLY
NW BRIEFLY) FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THESE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A STRATUS DECK, WITH CEILINGS AS LOW
AS 1500 FT. EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO ERODE BY 17Z/18Z.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF A
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE TAF FOR DEN AND APA TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY STORMS THAT COULD INITIATE CLOSER. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH VRB GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. AS CONVECTION DECREASES INTO THE EVENING, MOST GUIDANCE
FAVORS NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. A FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND 03Z-05Z, WHICH WILL THEN BRING WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ211>214-217-218.
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MAI
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