976
UXUS97 KBOU 010330
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
2129 MDT TUESDAY, JUNE 30, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 1, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 77.1 F/25.1 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1049 FT/MIN (5.3 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 19149 FT MSL (13724 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 90.0 F/32.7 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 0945 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ 2000 MDT
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST THIN MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 16580 FT MSL (11155 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY 07/02..... FAIR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... SAME
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ WEAK PVA
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 29564 FT MSL (24139 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY 07/02........ POOR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:35:22 / 20:31:31 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 56 MIN 9 SEC (896 MIN 9 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:03:26 MDT... 73.28 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 07/01/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 14225 FT MSL (8800 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 21990 FT MSL (16565 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 21419 FT MSL (15994 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +1.1
K INDEX......................... +1.7
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.4 -74.9 230 47 24 1.5 0.8 92.6 198.8 35.3 M M
45000 -57.0 -70.6 230 69 35 1.9 1.0 73.7 164.7 25.9 M M
40000 -53.7 -64.7 215 77 40 6.3 3.5 55.3 131.5 15.4 M M
38000 -50.2 -58.4 215 75 39 5.9 3.2 51.5 124.7 13.2 M M
36000 -46.6 -51.9 220 73 37 5.9 3.3 48.4 119.2 11.4 M M
34000 -42.5 -44.5 225 69 35 7.2 4.0 45.9 114.6 9.9 M M
32000 -38.2 -36.8 225 65 33 7.2 4.0 43.9 111.1 8.7 M M
30000 -34.1 -29.4 230 58 30 6.5 3.6 41.5 106.8 7.1 M M
29000 -32.1 -25.8 230 55 28 6.5 3.6 40.3 104.5 6.2 M M
28000 -30.2 -22.4 230 51 26 6.4 3.5 39.2 102.5 5.4 M M
27000 -27.9 -18.2 230 49 25 8.0 4.4 38.3 100.9 4.7 M M
26000 -25.5 -13.9 235 47 24 8.0 4.4 37.5 99.6 4.2 M M
25000 -22.6 -8.7 235 45 23 8.0 4.4 36.8 98.2 3.7 M M
24000 -20.2 -4.4 235 43 22 7.8 4.3 36.1 96.9 3.1 M M
23000 -17.9 -0.2 235 42 21 7.8 4.3 35.3 95.6 2.5 M M
22000 -15.5 4.1 235 40 21 7.9 4.3 34.7 94.5 2.0 M M
21000 -13.3 8.1 235 39 20 7.3 4.0 33.8 92.9 1.3 M M
20000 -11.1 12.0 235 39 20 7.4 4.0 33.0 91.4 0.6 M M
19500 -10.1 13.8 240 39 20 7.4 4.0 32.6 90.7 0.2 M M
19000 -9.0 15.8 240 38 20 6.4 3.5 32.2 90.0 -0.1 1233 6.3
18500 -8.1 17.4 240 37 19 6.0 3.3 31.5 88.8 -0.7 1191 6.1
18000 -7.2 19.0 240 37 19 6.0 3.3 30.9 87.6 -1.3 1149 5.8
17500 -6.3 20.7 245 35 18 5.9 3.2 30.2 86.4 -1.9 1108 5.6
17000 -5.4 22.3 245 34 17 5.9 3.2 29.6 85.3 -2.5 1067 5.4
16500 -4.6 23.7 250 32 17 6.1 3.4 29.0 84.1 -3.1 1026 5.2
16000 -3.6 25.5 250 30 16 6.2 3.4 28.4 83.0 -3.7 984 5.0
15500 -2.7 27.1 255 29 15 6.5 3.6 27.8 82.0 -4.2 941 4.8
15000 -1.7 28.9 255 27 14 7.0 3.8 27.3 81.1 -4.7 896 4.6
14500 -0.7 30.7 260 24 13 7.0 3.8 26.8 80.3 -5.2 851 4.3
14000 0.4 32.7 260 22 11 7.9 4.4 26.5 79.7 -5.5 802 4.1
13500 1.6 34.9 260 20 10 7.8 4.3 26.2 79.1 -5.9 753 3.8
13000 2.8 37.0 260 18 9 8.8 4.8 25.9 78.7 -6.1 701 3.6
12500 4.1 39.4 255 16 8 8.8 4.8 25.8 78.4 -6.3 647 3.3
12000 5.4 41.7 250 14 7 9.3 5.1 25.6 78.2 -6.5 593 3.0
11500 6.8 44.2 245 13 7 9.4 5.1 25.6 78.0 -6.6 536 2.7
11000 8.2 46.8 245 12 6 9.2 5.0 25.5 77.9 -6.7 479 2.4
10500 9.6 49.3 240 12 6 8.9 4.9 25.4 77.8 -6.8 423 2.2
10250 10.3 50.5 240 11 6 10.3 5.7 25.4 77.7 -6.9 395 2.0
10000 11.1 52.0 240 11 6 10.7 5.9 25.5 77.9 -6.8 363 1.8
9750 11.8 53.2 240 11 6 9.4 5.1 25.5 77.9 -6.8 334 1.7
9500 12.6 54.7 240 11 5 9.9 5.5 25.5 77.9 -6.8 305 1.5
9250 13.3 55.9 240 10 5 9.0 4.9 25.5 77.9 -6.9 276 1.4
9000 13.9 57.0 235 10 5 8.8 4.8 25.4 77.7 -7.0 249 1.3
8750 15.3 59.5 235 10 5 9.6 5.3 25.3 77.5 -7.1 193 1.0
8500 16.0 60.8 230 9 5 7.7 4.2 25.3 77.5 -7.2 165 0.8
8250 16.5 61.7 230 9 5 6.3 3.4 25.0 77.0 -7.4 144 0.7
8000 17.0 62.6 230 9 5 7.3 4.0 24.8 76.6 -7.7 121 0.6
7750 17.5 63.5 225 9 5 8.3 4.6 24.6 76.3 -7.9 97 0.5
7500 18.1 64.6 225 9 5 4.2 2.3 24.4 76.0 -8.1 74 0.4
7250 18.1 64.6 225 9 5 0.2 0.1 23.8 74.8 -8.8 65 0.3
7000 18.1 64.6 225 9 5 0.5 0.3 23.1 73.6 -9.5 56 0.3
6750 18.1 64.6 225 9 5 -0.6 -0.4 22.3 72.2 -10.3 50 0.3
6500 18.0 64.4 225 9 4 -1.8 -1.0 21.5 70.7 -11.2 46 0.2
6250 17.8 64.0 220 8 4 -2.5 -1.4 20.6 69.1 -12.1 44 0.2
6000 17.6 63.7 220 8 4 -2.7 -1.5 19.7 67.4 -13.1 43 0.2
5750 17.2 63.0 215 8 4 -8.5 -4.7 18.6 65.4 -14.2 47 0.2
5500 15.8 60.4 210 5 3 -30.3 -16.6 16.5 61.7 -16.4 81 0.4
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
07/01/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 07/01/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.3
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +1.5 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +5.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.2 -74.6 230 41 21 2.7 1.5 | -59.0 -74.2 225 38 20 3.1 1.7
45000 -55.6 -68.1 230 64 33 1.0 0.5 | -54.9 -66.8 230 57 30 1.1 0.6
40000 -53.9 -65.0 215 77 40 5.5 3.0 | -53.2 -63.8 225 69 36 4.1 2.2
38000 -50.4 -58.7 215 75 39 5.8 3.2 | -50.2 -58.4 220 70 36 4.9 2.7
36000 -47.0 -52.6 215 73 38 5.8 3.2 | -46.9 -52.4 220 70 36 5.0 2.7
34000 -43.1 -45.6 220 67 34 6.8 3.7 | -43.3 -45.9 220 63 33 6.5 3.5
32000 -39.0 -38.2 225 59 30 6.8 3.7 | -39.4 -38.9 220 55 28 6.5 3.6
30000 -34.8 -30.6 230 51 26 7.1 3.9 | -35.0 -31.0 220 48 25 7.8 4.3
29000 -32.6 -26.7 230 48 25 7.1 3.9 | -32.7 -26.9 220 45 23 7.8 4.3
28000 -30.5 -22.9 230 44 23 7.1 3.9 | -30.4 -22.7 225 42 22 7.8 4.3
27000 -27.7 -17.9 235 41 21 7.6 4.2 | -28.0 -18.4 225 40 21 7.8 4.3
26000 -25.4 -13.7 235 39 20 7.6 4.2 | -25.7 -14.3 225 39 20 7.8 4.3
25000 -23.1 -9.6 235 36 19 7.6 4.1 | -23.4 -10.1 225 37 19 7.8 4.3
24000 -20.8 -5.4 235 35 18 7.9 4.3 | -21.1 -6.0 225 36 19 7.7 4.2
23000 -18.5 -1.3 235 35 18 7.9 4.3 | -18.8 -1.8 225 35 18 7.7 4.2
22000 -16.1 3.0 235 34 18 7.9 4.3 | -15.9 3.4 225 34 18 7.5 4.1
21000 -13.9 7.0 235 33 17 7.4 4.1 | -13.9 7.0 225 33 17 6.8 3.7
20000 -11.6 11.1 235 33 17 7.4 4.1 | -11.9 10.6 230 31 16 6.9 3.8
19500 -10.5 13.1 235 32 17 7.5 4.1 | -10.9 12.4 230 30 15 7.0 3.8
19000 -9.4 15.1 235 32 16 6.8 3.8 | -9.9 14.2 230 28 15 6.3 3.4
18500 -8.5 16.7 235 31 16 6.6 3.6 | -9.0 15.8 230 27 14 6.3 3.5
18000 -7.5 18.5 240 30 16 6.6 3.6 | -8.1 17.4 230 26 13 7.0 3.8
17500 -6.5 20.3 240 30 15 6.4 3.5 | -6.9 19.6 230 25 13 8.3 4.5
17000 -5.6 21.9 240 29 15 6.4 3.5 | -5.7 21.7 230 24 12 8.2 4.5
16500 -4.6 23.7 245 28 14 6.8 3.7 | -4.4 24.1 230 23 12 9.1 5.0
16000 -3.6 25.5 245 27 14 6.9 3.8 | -3.1 26.4 225 22 11 9.0 4.9
15500 -2.6 27.3 245 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -1.7 28.9 225 21 11 9.1 5.0
15000 -1.5 29.3 250 24 12 7.3 4.0 | -0.4 31.3 225 19 10 9.2 5.0
14500 -0.4 31.3 250 22 12 7.4 4.0 | 1.0 33.8 220 18 9 9.3 5.1
14000 0.7 33.3 250 21 11 7.8 4.3 | 2.4 36.3 220 17 9 9.5 5.2
13500 1.9 35.4 250 19 10 7.7 4.2 | 3.8 38.8 220 16 8 9.5 5.2
13000 3.1 37.6 250 17 9 8.8 4.8 | 5.2 41.4 215 15 8 9.5 5.2
12500 4.4 39.9 245 14 7 8.7 4.8 | 6.7 44.1 215 15 8 9.5 5.2
12000 5.7 42.3 245 13 7 9.2 5.1 | 8.1 46.6 215 14 7 9.6 5.3
11500 7.1 44.8 240 12 6 9.2 5.1 | 9.5 49.1 215 13 7 9.6 5.3
11000 8.5 47.3 235 11 6 9.1 5.0 | 10.9 51.6 210 13 7 9.1 5.0
10500 9.8 49.6 235 11 6 9.0 4.9 | 12.3 54.1 210 12 6 9.6 5.3
10250 10.5 50.9 235 11 6 9.3 5.1 | 13.0 55.4 210 12 6 10.4 5.7
10000 11.2 52.2 230 11 6 9.6 5.2 | 13.8 56.8 210 11 6 9.8 5.4
9750 11.9 53.4 230 11 6 9.5 5.2 | 14.5 58.1 210 11 6 9.4 5.1
9500 12.7 54.9 230 11 5 9.6 5.3 | 15.2 59.4 205 10 5 9.6 5.2
9250 13.4 56.1 230 11 5 9.3 5.1 | 15.9 60.6 205 10 5 9.3 5.1
9000 14.1 57.4 235 10 5 9.2 5.1 | 16.6 61.9 205 9 5 9.5 5.2
8750 15.5 59.9 235 10 5 9.7 5.3 | 17.4 63.3 205 9 5 9.8 5.4
8500 16.2 61.2 235 10 5 8.2 4.5 | 18.1 64.6 200 8 4 10.1 5.5
8250 16.7 62.1 235 10 5 7.4 4.1 | 18.8 65.8 200 8 4 8.8 4.8
8000 17.3 63.1 235 9 5 8.5 4.7 | 20.2 68.4 195 7 4 10.7 5.8
7750 18.0 64.4 240 9 5 8.7 4.8 | 21.0 69.8 195 6 3 10.3 5.7
7500 18.5 65.3 240 9 4 4.3 2.4 | 21.7 71.1 190 6 3 9.2 5.1
7250 18.6 65.5 240 8 4 1.5 0.8 | 22.4 72.3 185 5 3 8.9 4.9
7000 18.8 65.8 245 7 4 4.1 2.3 | 23.1 73.6 180 5 3 10.7 5.9
6750 19.2 66.6 250 6 3 6.2 3.4 | 23.9 75.0 175 4 2 11.0 6.1
6500 19.7 67.5 250 5 3 8.4 4.6 | 24.7 76.5 170 4 2 10.4 5.7
6250 20.4 68.7 255 5 3 9.3 5.1 | 25.5 77.9 165 4 2 10.6 5.8
6000 21.1 70.0 255 5 2 8.8 4.8 | 26.3 79.3 160 3 2 9.3 5.1
5750 21.9 71.4 260 4 2 14.1 7.7 | 27.1 80.8 150 3 2 15.4 8.4
5500 23.8 74.8 260 4 2 43.0 23.6 | 29.7 85.5 130 2 1 69.0 37.9
07/01/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 07/01/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +17.2 LI... -0.4 | CAPE... +13.6 LI... +0.1
CINH... -1.4 K INDEX... +3.6 | CINH... -57.2 K INDEX... +7.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.1 -74.4 225 39 20 3.6 2.0 | -60.1 -76.2 225 41 21 3.6 2.0
45000 -54.3 -65.7 230 49 25 2.1 1.1 | -55.0 -67.0 225 54 28 2.8 1.5
40000 -51.1 -60.0 230 66 34 3.3 1.8 | -50.7 -59.3 225 67 35 3.8 2.1
38000 -49.0 -56.2 230 66 34 3.6 2.0 | -48.4 -55.1 220 66 34 3.8 2.1
36000 -46.6 -51.9 230 65 34 3.7 2.0 | -45.8 -50.4 220 64 33 3.9 2.1
34000 -43.3 -45.9 230 61 31 6.0 3.3 | -42.5 -44.5 220 59 30 6.2 3.4
32000 -39.7 -39.5 225 55 29 6.1 3.3 | -38.7 -37.7 225 52 27 6.2 3.4
30000 -35.8 -32.4 225 49 25 6.8 3.7 | -35.0 -31.0 220 43 22 6.2 3.4
29000 -33.8 -28.8 230 45 23 6.8 3.7 | -33.2 -27.8 220 38 20 6.3 3.4
28000 -31.8 -25.2 230 42 21 6.8 3.7 | -31.3 -24.3 215 33 17 6.4 3.5
27000 -29.6 -21.3 230 38 20 7.4 4.1 | -28.9 -20.0 215 32 17 8.9 4.9
26000 -27.4 -17.3 235 35 18 7.4 4.1 | -26.2 -15.2 210 33 17 8.9 4.9
25000 -25.2 -13.4 240 32 16 7.5 4.1 | -23.6 -10.5 210 33 17 9.0 4.9
24000 -22.9 -9.2 240 29 15 8.4 4.6 | -21.2 -6.2 205 33 17 7.6 4.1
23000 -20.4 -4.7 235 26 14 8.5 4.6 | -18.4 -1.1 205 32 16 7.6 4.1
22000 -17.2 1.0 230 23 12 8.9 4.9 | -16.2 2.8 205 31 16 8.2 4.5
21000 -14.4 6.1 225 22 11 9.6 5.3 | -13.3 8.1 205 29 15 9.6 5.3
20000 -11.5 11.3 225 21 11 9.6 5.3 | -10.5 13.1 205 27 14 9.6 5.3
19500 -10.1 13.8 220 20 10 9.6 5.3 | -9.0 15.8 205 26 13 9.6 5.3
19000 -8.6 16.5 220 20 10 9.7 5.3 | -7.6 18.3 205 25 13 9.5 5.2
18500 -7.2 19.0 220 19 10 9.7 5.3 | -6.2 20.8 205 24 12 9.5 5.2
18000 -5.7 21.7 215 19 10 9.7 5.3 | -4.7 23.5 210 22 12 9.6 5.2
17500 -4.3 24.3 215 19 10 9.7 5.3 | -3.3 26.1 210 21 11 9.6 5.2
17000 -2.8 27.0 215 18 9 9.7 5.3 | -1.9 28.6 210 20 10 9.6 5.3
16500 -1.4 29.5 215 18 9 9.8 5.4 | -0.5 31.1 210 19 10 9.3 5.1
16000 0.1 32.2 210 18 9 9.8 5.4 | 0.9 33.6 210 17 9 9.3 5.1
15500 1.6 34.9 210 18 9 9.6 5.3 | 2.3 36.1 210 16 8 9.3 5.1
15000 3.0 37.4 210 17 9 9.6 5.3 | 3.7 38.7 215 14 7 9.3 5.1
14500 4.4 39.9 210 17 9 9.6 5.3 | 5.1 41.2 215 13 7 9.4 5.1
14000 5.9 42.6 210 17 9 9.6 5.3 | 6.5 43.7 215 12 6 9.5 5.2
13500 7.3 45.1 205 17 9 9.6 5.3 | 7.9 46.2 220 11 5 9.5 5.2
13000 8.7 47.7 205 17 9 9.7 5.3 | 9.3 48.7 220 9 5 9.5 5.2
12500 10.2 50.4 205 17 9 9.7 5.3 | 10.8 51.4 225 8 4 9.5 5.2
12000 11.6 52.9 200 17 9 9.5 5.2 | 12.2 54.0 230 7 4 9.6 5.3
11500 13.1 55.6 200 17 9 9.5 5.2 | 13.6 56.5 235 6 3 9.6 5.3
11000 14.5 58.1 200 16 8 9.4 5.2 | 15.0 59.0 250 5 3 9.4 5.2
10500 15.9 60.6 195 16 8 9.9 5.4 | 16.4 61.5 265 5 2 9.8 5.4
10250 16.7 62.1 195 16 8 10.5 5.8 | 17.2 63.0 270 4 2 10.3 5.6
10000 17.4 63.3 195 16 8 9.8 5.4 | 17.9 64.2 280 4 2 9.7 5.3
9750 18.1 64.6 190 16 8 9.5 5.2 | 18.7 65.7 290 5 2 9.4 5.1
9500 18.9 66.0 190 16 8 9.7 5.3 | 19.4 66.9 300 5 2 9.6 5.3
9250 19.6 67.3 190 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 20.1 68.2 305 5 3 9.0 5.0
9000 20.3 68.5 190 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 20.7 69.3 310 5 3 9.1 5.0
8750 21.0 69.8 185 15 8 10.0 5.5 | 21.4 70.5 315 6 3 9.6 5.3
8500 21.7 71.1 185 15 8 10.2 5.6 | 22.1 71.8 320 6 3 9.6 5.3
8250 22.5 72.5 185 15 8 8.8 4.8 | 23.5 74.3 330 7 4 9.3 5.1
8000 23.9 75.0 180 15 8 10.7 5.8 | 24.3 75.7 335 8 4 9.8 5.4
7750 24.6 76.3 180 14 7 10.5 5.7 | 25.0 77.0 335 8 4 9.9 5.4
7500 25.4 77.7 180 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 25.7 78.3 340 9 4 9.2 5.0
7250 26.1 79.0 175 14 7 9.2 5.1 | 26.4 79.5 340 9 5 8.8 4.9
7000 26.8 80.2 175 14 7 10.5 5.8 | 27.1 80.8 345 10 5 9.9 5.4
6750 27.6 81.7 175 14 7 10.8 5.9 | 27.8 82.0 350 10 5 10.3 5.6
6500 28.4 83.1 170 13 7 10.7 5.9 | 28.6 83.5 350 11 6 10.0 5.5
6250 29.2 84.6 170 13 7 11.2 6.1 | 29.3 84.7 350 11 5 9.8 5.4
6000 30.1 86.2 170 12 6 10.1 5.5 | 30.0 86.0 350 10 5 9.6 5.2
5750 30.9 87.6 165 11 6 16.5 9.1 | 30.7 87.3 355 10 5 9.8 5.4
5500 33.6 92.5 160 9 5 68.2 37.4 | 31.6 88.9 350 8 4 16.1 8.9
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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