595
UXUS97 KBOU 020250
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
2050 MDT WEDNESDAY, JULY 1, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR THURSDAY, JULY 2, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 79.3 F/26.3 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1337 FT/MIN (6.8 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 21628 FT MSL (16268 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 93.0 F/34.3 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1030 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST THIN MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 16966 FT MSL (11606 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 07/03....... GOOD
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... TRENDING THE SAME
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ WEAK PVA
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 18385 FT MSL (13025 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 07/03.......... FAIR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:35:52 / 20:31:23 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 55 MIN 31 SEC (895 MIN 31 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:03:38 MDT... 73.20 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 07/02/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 15345 FT MSL (9985 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 14163 FT MSL (8803 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 15964 FT MSL (10604 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -8.4
K INDEX......................... +12.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.1 -72.6 215 30 15 1.4 0.8 M M M M M
45000 -55.9 -68.6 215 42 22 1.1 0.6 M M M M M
40000 -54.0 -65.2 225 50 26 5.9 3.2 M M M M M
38000 -50.4 -58.7 220 48 25 6.1 3.4 M M M M M
36000 -46.7 -52.1 220 46 24 6.1 3.4 M M M M M
34000 -43.2 -45.8 220 41 21 5.6 3.1 M M M M M
32000 -39.4 -38.9 220 33 17 5.7 3.1 M M M M M
30000 -35.1 -31.2 225 29 15 7.8 4.3 39.8 103.7 4.5 M M
29000 -32.8 -27.0 225 28 15 7.8 4.3 39.1 102.3 4.0 M M
28000 -30.4 -22.7 225 27 14 7.9 4.3 38.5 101.2 3.6 M M
27000 -28.0 -18.4 225 28 14 8.4 4.6 37.8 100.1 3.1 M M
26000 -25.5 -13.9 225 28 14 8.4 4.6 37.3 99.1 2.7 M M
25000 -23.0 -9.4 225 29 15 8.4 4.6 36.8 98.3 2.4 M M
24000 -20.7 -5.3 220 28 15 7.3 4.0 36.0 96.8 1.7 M M
23000 -18.5 -1.3 220 28 14 7.3 4.0 35.1 95.2 1.0 M M
22000 -16.3 2.7 220 27 14 7.3 4.0 34.3 93.7 0.3 M M
21000 -14.1 6.6 225 26 14 7.3 4.0 33.4 92.1 -0.5 1485 7.5
20000 -12.0 10.4 230 26 13 7.3 4.0 32.5 90.5 -1.3 1391 7.1
19500 -10.9 12.4 235 26 14 7.3 4.0 32.1 89.7 -1.6 1344 6.8
19000 -9.8 14.4 235 26 14 7.8 4.3 31.7 89.1 -2.0 1297 6.6
18500 -8.0 17.6 235 28 14 8.2 4.5 31.3 88.3 -2.4 1220 6.2
18000 -6.8 19.8 240 28 14 8.5 4.7 31.0 87.9 -2.6 1170 5.9
17500 -5.5 22.1 240 28 14 8.7 4.8 30.8 87.5 -2.8 1116 5.7
17000 -4.2 24.4 240 27 14 8.7 4.8 30.7 87.2 -3.0 1063 5.4
16500 -2.9 26.8 240 25 13 9.1 5.0 30.5 87.0 -3.2 1008 5.1
16000 -1.6 29.1 240 23 12 9.1 5.0 30.4 86.8 -3.3 953 4.8
15500 -0.2 31.6 240 21 11 9.0 5.0 30.3 86.6 -3.5 899 4.6
15000 1.1 34.0 235 18 9 9.0 5.0 30.2 86.3 -3.6 844 4.3
14500 2.4 36.3 235 16 8 9.1 5.0 30.1 86.1 -3.7 789 4.0
14000 3.8 38.8 235 14 7 9.2 5.1 30.0 86.0 -3.9 734 3.7
13500 5.1 41.2 240 12 6 9.2 5.0 29.9 85.8 -4.0 678 3.4
13000 6.5 43.7 240 11 6 9.0 5.0 29.8 85.6 -4.1 623 3.2
12500 7.8 46.0 240 10 5 9.1 5.0 29.7 85.4 -4.3 569 2.9
12000 9.0 48.2 245 9 5 8.2 4.5 29.5 85.1 -4.5 517 2.6
11500 10.2 50.4 250 8 4 8.4 4.6 29.3 84.7 -4.8 467 2.4
11000 11.3 52.3 255 7 4 7.4 4.1 29.0 84.1 -5.2 419 2.1
10500 12.3 54.1 265 7 3 8.3 4.5 28.6 83.5 -5.7 374 1.9
10250 12.8 55.0 270 6 3 5.0 2.8 28.4 83.2 -5.9 351 1.8
10000 13.1 55.6 275 7 3 4.7 2.6 27.9 82.3 -6.5 337 1.7
9750 13.5 56.3 280 7 3 7.5 4.1 27.7 81.9 -6.8 317 1.6
9500 14.0 57.2 285 7 3 7.5 4.1 27.5 81.5 -7.1 296 1.5
9250 14.4 57.9 290 7 4 4.7 2.6 27.3 81.1 -7.4 275 1.4
9000 14.5 58.1 295 7 4 2.4 1.3 26.7 80.1 -8.0 264 1.3
8750 14.7 58.5 300 8 4 3.8 2.1 26.2 79.2 -8.6 251 1.3
8500 14.9 58.8 305 8 4 3.5 1.9 25.8 78.4 -9.1 238 1.2
8250 15.0 59.0 305 9 5 1.3 0.7 25.2 77.4 -9.8 227 1.2
8000 14.9 58.8 310 9 5 -0.4 -0.2 24.5 76.1 -10.6 222 1.1
7750 14.9 58.8 310 10 5 0.2 0.1 23.7 74.7 -11.4 216 1.1
7500 14.8 58.6 310 10 5 0.2 0.1 23.0 73.4 -12.2 210 1.1
7250 14.8 58.6 315 10 5 0.2 0.1 22.3 72.1 -13.0 204 1.0
7000 14.8 58.6 320 8 4 0.4 0.2 21.6 70.8 -13.8 197 1.0
6750 14.8 58.6 330 7 4 1.7 1.0 20.9 69.6 -14.5 188 1.0
6500 15.0 59.0 340 7 4 3.6 2.0 20.4 68.6 -15.0 175 0.9
6250 15.3 59.5 340 7 4 4.2 2.3 19.9 67.9 -15.5 159 0.8
6000 15.6 60.1 340 7 4 4.4 2.4 19.5 67.1 -16.0 143 0.7
5750 15.9 60.6 340 7 4 3.2 1.8 19.1 66.3 -16.5 127 0.6
5500 16.0 60.8 340 6 3 0.9 0.5 18.5 65.3 -17.1 116 0.6
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
07/02/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 07/02/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +1050.4 LI... -3.3 | CAPE... +750.7 LI... -1.9
CINH... -214.5 K INDEX... +7.5 | CINH... -32.8 K INDEX... +6.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.2 -72.8 215 25 13 1.4 0.8 | -58.2 -72.8 225 26 13 1.6 0.9
45000 -56.1 -69.0 215 40 20 1.1 0.6 | -55.9 -68.6 220 39 20 1.1 0.6
40000 -54.2 -65.6 225 49 25 4.5 2.5 | -54.1 -65.4 220 48 25 4.3 2.4
38000 -51.2 -60.2 225 47 24 5.0 2.8 | -51.2 -60.2 230 45 23 4.8 2.6
36000 -48.2 -54.8 230 44 23 5.0 2.8 | -48.4 -55.1 235 42 21 4.8 2.6
34000 -44.1 -47.4 230 39 20 6.4 3.5 | -44.3 -47.7 235 38 20 6.7 3.7
32000 -40.3 -40.5 230 32 17 6.5 3.5 | -40.3 -40.5 235 35 18 6.7 3.7
30000 -35.8 -32.4 230 28 15 7.9 4.3 | -35.7 -32.3 230 31 16 7.9 4.3
29000 -33.4 -28.1 230 27 14 7.9 4.4 | -33.4 -28.1 225 29 15 7.9 4.3
28000 -31.0 -23.8 230 26 13 8.0 4.4 | -31.0 -23.8 225 27 14 7.9 4.4
27000 -28.5 -19.3 230 25 13 8.5 4.6 | -28.6 -19.5 220 26 14 8.1 4.4
26000 -26.0 -14.8 230 25 13 8.5 4.6 | -26.2 -15.2 220 26 13 8.1 4.5
25000 -23.4 -10.1 225 25 13 8.6 4.7 | -23.7 -10.7 215 25 13 8.2 4.5
24000 -21.2 -6.2 225 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -21.5 -6.7 215 24 13 7.3 4.0
23000 -19.1 -2.4 225 25 13 7.2 3.9 | -19.3 -2.7 220 24 12 7.3 4.0
22000 -16.9 1.6 225 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -17.1 1.2 220 24 12 7.3 4.0
21000 -14.6 5.7 230 26 13 7.9 4.4 | -14.8 5.4 225 24 12 8.2 4.5
20000 -12.3 9.9 230 26 14 7.9 4.4 | -12.3 9.9 225 24 12 8.2 4.5
19500 -11.1 12.0 230 27 14 7.9 4.4 | -11.1 12.0 230 23 12 8.2 4.5
19000 -9.3 15.3 230 27 14 8.0 4.4 | -9.2 15.4 230 24 12 8.6 4.7
18500 -8.1 17.4 230 28 14 8.0 4.4 | -8.0 17.6 230 24 12 8.6 4.7
18000 -7.0 19.4 230 28 14 8.4 4.6 | -6.7 19.9 230 24 12 8.7 4.8
17500 -5.7 21.7 230 27 14 8.6 4.7 | -5.4 22.3 230 24 12 8.7 4.8
17000 -4.5 23.9 230 26 13 8.6 4.7 | -4.1 24.6 230 24 12 8.8 4.8
16500 -3.1 26.4 230 25 13 9.0 4.9 | -2.8 27.0 225 24 12 9.1 5.0
16000 -1.8 28.8 230 23 12 8.9 4.9 | -1.4 29.5 225 24 12 9.1 5.0
15500 -0.4 31.3 230 22 11 9.3 5.1 | -0.1 31.8 225 23 12 9.2 5.0
15000 1.0 33.8 230 20 10 9.3 5.1 | 1.3 34.3 225 22 11 9.2 5.0
14500 2.4 36.3 225 18 9 9.2 5.0 | 2.6 36.7 225 21 11 9.3 5.1
14000 3.7 38.7 225 17 9 9.1 5.0 | 4.0 39.2 225 20 10 9.4 5.1
13500 5.1 41.2 220 15 8 9.1 5.0 | 5.4 41.7 225 19 10 9.4 5.1
13000 6.4 43.5 220 14 7 9.2 5.1 | 6.8 44.2 225 18 9 9.3 5.1
12500 7.8 46.0 215 12 6 9.2 5.1 | 8.2 46.8 220 16 8 9.3 5.1
12000 9.2 48.6 215 11 6 9.2 5.0 | 9.6 49.3 220 15 8 9.2 5.1
11500 10.5 50.9 215 10 5 9.2 5.0 | 11.0 51.8 215 13 7 9.2 5.1
11000 11.8 53.2 215 9 5 8.2 4.5 | 12.3 54.1 215 12 6 8.8 4.8
10500 13.0 55.4 220 8 4 5.2 2.9 | 13.7 56.7 210 10 5 5.7 3.1
10250 13.2 55.8 220 8 4 4.8 2.6 | 13.9 57.0 210 10 5 6.3 3.5
10000 13.7 56.7 220 7 4 9.3 5.1 | 14.7 58.5 210 9 5 11.0 6.0
9750 14.4 57.9 225 7 4 8.8 4.8 | 15.4 59.7 205 8 4 9.9 5.4
9500 15.0 59.0 225 6 3 8.8 4.8 | 16.1 61.0 205 7 4 9.7 5.3
9250 15.5 59.9 230 6 3 5.9 3.2 | 16.7 62.1 200 7 3 7.5 4.1
9000 15.8 60.4 235 6 3 4.5 2.5 | 17.2 63.0 200 6 3 7.8 4.3
8750 16.1 61.0 245 5 3 5.6 3.1 | 17.9 64.2 195 5 3 9.1 5.0
8500 16.5 61.7 255 5 3 4.8 2.6 | 18.5 65.3 190 4 2 8.3 4.6
8250 16.7 62.1 260 5 3 2.9 1.6 | 19.0 66.2 180 4 2 6.2 3.4
8000 16.8 62.2 270 5 3 1.2 0.7 | 19.4 66.9 175 3 2 6.7 3.7
7750 16.9 62.4 280 5 3 1.0 0.6 | 19.9 67.8 160 3 1 8.5 4.6
7500 16.8 62.2 295 5 3 -0.8 -0.4 | 20.5 68.9 140 2 1 7.9 4.3
7250 16.5 61.7 300 5 3 -3.6 -2.0 | 20.9 69.6 120 2 1 7.1 3.9
7000 16.1 61.0 300 5 2 -3.2 -1.8 | 21.4 70.5 105 3 1 8.1 4.4
6750 15.8 60.4 300 4 2 0.2 0.1 | 22.0 71.6 100 3 1 11.7 6.4
6500 15.8 60.4 310 4 2 6.0 3.3 | 22.9 73.2 100 3 1 11.7 6.4
6250 16.4 61.5 315 3 2 8.8 4.8 | 23.7 74.7 095 3 1 10.4 5.7
6000 16.9 62.4 320 2 1 7.2 3.9 | 24.5 76.1 090 3 2 9.8 5.4
5750 17.5 63.5 325 2 1 12.3 6.8 | 25.3 77.5 085 3 2 13.6 7.5
5500 18.9 66.0 330 2 1 23.6 13.0 | 26.7 80.1 085 3 1 27.4 15.0
07/02/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 07/02/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +542.1 LI... -1.8 | CAPE... +551.7 LI... -1.4
CINH... -5.1 K INDEX... +16.1 | CINH... -24.8 K INDEX... +24.6
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.2 -72.8 215 20 10 1.5 0.8 | -56.9 -70.4 200 18 9 1.8 1.0
45000 -56.1 -69.0 225 34 17 0.8 0.5 | -55.0 -67.0 215 28 14 -0.3 -0.2
40000 -54.6 -66.3 225 54 28 4.2 2.3 | -55.4 -67.7 235 51 26 3.2 1.8
38000 -51.8 -61.2 230 50 26 4.7 2.6 | -52.6 -62.7 235 50 26 4.7 2.6
36000 -49.0 -56.2 235 46 24 4.7 2.6 | -49.4 -56.9 240 50 26 4.7 2.6
34000 -44.4 -47.9 235 44 23 7.7 4.3 | -45.2 -49.4 240 47 24 7.6 4.2
32000 -39.7 -39.5 240 44 22 7.7 4.2 | -40.7 -41.3 240 43 22 7.6 4.2
30000 -35.1 -31.2 240 41 21 7.7 4.2 | -35.8 -32.4 240 38 20 8.4 4.6
29000 -32.8 -27.0 240 39 20 7.7 4.2 | -33.3 -27.9 240 35 18 8.4 4.6
28000 -30.5 -22.9 240 37 19 7.4 4.1 | -30.8 -23.4 240 32 17 8.3 4.6
27000 -28.5 -19.3 240 34 17 6.5 3.6 | -28.4 -19.1 235 31 16 8.1 4.4
26000 -26.5 -15.7 240 31 16 6.6 3.6 | -26.0 -14.8 235 30 15 8.1 4.4
25000 -24.6 -12.3 235 28 14 6.4 3.5 | -23.6 -10.5 230 28 15 8.1 4.5
24000 -22.3 -8.1 235 26 13 8.2 4.5 | -21.3 -6.3 230 28 14 7.7 4.2
23000 -19.9 -3.8 230 24 12 8.2 4.5 | -19.0 -2.2 225 28 15 7.7 4.2
22000 -17.4 0.7 230 22 11 8.3 4.5 | -16.7 1.9 220 29 15 7.6 4.2
21000 -14.7 5.5 225 21 11 9.4 5.2 | -13.3 8.1 220 27 14 9.4 5.1
20000 -11.9 10.6 225 21 11 9.4 5.2 | -10.5 13.1 215 25 13 9.4 5.1
19500 -9.8 14.4 220 20 11 9.4 5.2 | -9.1 15.6 215 24 12 9.4 5.1
19000 -8.4 16.9 220 20 10 9.5 5.2 | -7.8 18.0 215 22 11 9.3 5.1
18500 -7.0 19.4 220 20 10 9.5 5.2 | -6.4 20.5 210 20 10 9.3 5.1
18000 -5.5 22.1 220 19 10 9.6 5.3 | -5.0 23.0 210 18 9 9.2 5.0
17500 -4.1 24.6 215 19 10 9.6 5.3 | -3.7 25.3 210 16 8 9.2 5.0
17000 -2.7 27.1 215 19 10 9.6 5.3 | -2.4 27.7 205 14 7 9.2 5.1
16500 -1.2 29.8 215 18 9 9.5 5.2 | -1.0 30.2 205 12 6 9.4 5.1
16000 0.2 32.4 210 18 9 9.5 5.2 | 0.4 32.7 200 10 5 9.4 5.1
15500 1.6 34.9 210 17 9 9.5 5.2 | 1.7 35.1 195 8 4 9.3 5.1
15000 3.0 37.4 210 17 9 9.5 5.2 | 3.1 37.6 195 7 4 9.3 5.1
14500 4.4 39.9 205 16 8 9.4 5.2 | 4.5 40.1 190 5 3 9.4 5.2
14000 5.8 42.4 205 16 8 9.4 5.2 | 5.9 42.6 180 5 2 9.4 5.2
13500 7.2 45.0 200 15 8 9.4 5.1 | 7.3 45.1 175 4 2 9.4 5.2
13000 8.6 47.5 195 14 7 9.3 5.1 | 8.7 47.7 160 3 2 9.3 5.1
12500 9.9 49.8 190 12 6 9.3 5.1 | 10.0 50.0 140 2 1 9.3 5.1
12000 11.3 52.3 185 11 6 9.6 5.2 | 11.4 52.5 110 2 1 9.3 5.1
11500 12.7 54.9 175 10 5 9.6 5.3 | 12.8 55.0 080 3 1 9.3 5.1
11000 14.0 57.2 170 9 5 8.5 4.7 | 14.1 57.4 065 3 2 8.2 4.5
10500 15.2 59.4 165 9 5 11.2 6.1 | 15.3 59.5 050 4 2 10.7 5.9
10250 16.2 61.2 165 9 4 12.1 6.6 | 16.2 61.2 045 5 3 11.1 6.1
10000 16.9 62.4 165 8 4 9.3 5.1 | 16.8 62.2 045 6 3 8.2 4.5
9750 17.6 63.7 160 8 4 10.1 5.5 | 17.5 63.5 040 6 3 9.0 4.9
9500 18.4 65.1 160 8 4 9.7 5.3 | 18.2 64.8 035 7 3 8.8 4.8
9250 19.1 66.4 155 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 18.8 65.8 035 7 4 8.5 4.7
9000 19.8 67.6 155 9 4 9.8 5.4 | 19.5 67.1 030 7 4 9.0 4.9
8750 20.5 68.9 155 8 4 10.1 5.5 | 20.2 68.4 030 8 4 9.4 5.2
8500 21.3 70.3 150 8 4 10.0 5.5 | 20.9 69.6 025 8 4 9.3 5.1
8250 22.0 71.6 150 8 4 10.1 5.5 | 21.6 70.9 025 9 4 8.9 4.9
8000 22.8 73.0 145 8 4 10.0 5.5 | 22.2 72.0 020 9 5 9.3 5.1
7750 23.5 74.3 145 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 23.0 73.4 020 9 5 9.9 5.4
7500 24.3 75.7 145 8 4 9.8 5.4 | 23.7 74.7 020 10 5 9.7 5.3
7250 25.0 77.0 145 8 4 9.2 5.1 | 24.4 75.9 020 10 5 9.7 5.3
7000 25.6 78.1 140 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 25.1 77.2 020 10 5 9.7 5.3
6750 26.4 79.5 140 8 4 10.9 6.0 | 25.9 78.6 015 10 5 9.7 5.3
6500 27.3 81.1 140 8 4 11.2 6.1 | 26.6 79.9 015 10 5 10.0 5.5
6250 28.1 82.6 135 8 4 10.9 6.0 | 27.4 81.3 015 10 5 10.4 5.7
6000 28.9 84.0 135 8 4 11.0 6.0 | 28.1 82.6 015 10 5 10.5 5.8
5750 29.7 85.5 135 8 4 10.0 5.5 | 28.9 84.0 015 10 5 9.7 5.3
5500 30.6 87.1 130 7 3 18.0 9.9 | 29.7 85.5 015 10 5 11.7 6.4
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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