670
FXUS65 KBOU 061756
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1156 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD.
- ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOUNTAINS COULD SPARK NEW
WILDFIRES.
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE ARRIVES THIS COMING WEEKEND, WITH MINIMAL
CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR HEAT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
WE REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DCAPE RANGING FROM 1200-1700 J/KG, THE MAIN EXPECTATION IS FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOWS (35-45 MPH) AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, PALMER DIVIDE, AND CHEYENNE
RIDGE. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, WITH GROWING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING PATTERN STARTS
AGAIN FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES DO START TO SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL GET UNDER AN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ECMWF, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT WE SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, REACHING
FOR RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE WE REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE SETS IN UNDER THE RIDGE, SUPPRESSING ANY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER, FUEL CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS
THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY IF WINDS INCREASE OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS RETURN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY PUSH TO THE NORTH OF DEN AND APA ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS
BOUNDARY STAYS FARTHER SOUTH AND THERE ARE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
AT BOTH AIRPORTS. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAKES THE CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HIGHER. THEREFORE, THE
PROB30 FOR GUSTY WINDS WAS INCREASED TO A TEMPO FROM 21-01Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF A SHOWER OR STORM WERE TO FORM VERY CLOSE TO
DEN OR APA, THE HIGH DCAPE VALUES MEAN WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
45 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE, SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
THAN NORMAL. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TOMORROW MORNING.
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS FOR ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPO FOR
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WAS ADDED TO DEN
AND WILL BE ADDED TO APA AND BJC LATER.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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