937
FXUS65 KBOU 070623
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1223 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.
- HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOUNTAINS COULD SPARK NEW
WILDFIRES.
- HEAT WAVE ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, WITH MINIMAL CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR HEAT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY EASE SLIGHTLY FOR
TUESDAY. SOME OF THAT RELIEF WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS SHOWER/STORM OUTFLOWS A LITTLE
EARLIER IN THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME, WE'LL HAVE JUST ISOLATED HIGH
BASED CONVECTION (POSSIBLE LIGHTNING AND MAINLY SPRINKLES) INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MICROBURSTS AS
DCAPE HAS GROWN TO 1400-1700 J/KG OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH
THOSE VALUES, WE EXPECT MICROBURST POTENTIAL TO BE AROUND 40-50
MPH, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST TO 60 MPH CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR HIGHER (SCATTERED) COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES A LITTLE THAT
WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD AS STORMS ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A MORE
LINEAR WIND PRODUCING STRUCTURE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT
WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS, AND
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MLCAPE OF 800-1600 J/KG
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS (USING THE GEM AS A ROUGH ESTIMATE WHICH
TYPICALLY IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE NAM
AND UNDER-REPRESENTATIVE GFS). THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO BE HOW FAR WEST THE BETTER MOISTURE MAKES IT. MOST
LIKELY, THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND STORMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO GET IN ON SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, AS THE MID LEVELS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WHICH MEANS A RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS
FROM ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH READINGS
SETTLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY
WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TOWARD DRIER WEATHER, BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH DRYING AND THUS UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
COVERAGE.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING A HEAT WAVE THAT'S FORECAST TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THAT COULD AFFECT EXACTLY HOW HOT
WE GET, AS THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER HIGH IS NOW FORECAST TO
CENTER ITSELF A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT, WE STAY IN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WHICH, AS FUNNY AS THIS SOUNDS, IS SLIGHT "COOL"
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FORECAST TO STAY NEAR/BELOW +20C. THOSE
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE THE EVER SO SLIGHT "COOLING" TREND IN THE
MODELS, ESSENTIALLY TAKING US TO NEAR 100F AND POTENTIALLY NOT
EXCEEDING THAT MARK NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A
RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY (>60%) THAT WE'LL BE REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EITHER SATURDAY OR MORE CONFIDENCE BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
RECORDS FOR DENVER ARE 100F AND 101F, RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT KDEN/KAPA AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 9Z BEFORE TURNING TO DRAINAGE AND WEAKENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT KBJC WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING.
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY, MOVING
WITHIN THE VICINITY THE TAF SITES BY 19Z-21Z, IMPACTING KBJC/KAPA
FOLLOWED BY KDEN. THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN,
WITH CIG EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10,000' AGL AND DCAPE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOWS BETWEEN
35-45KTS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THAT WILL
LIKELY BRING SLANT-RANGE VIS CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...9
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