895
FXUS65 KBOU 072026
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
226 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR HEAT
RELIEF.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. IN ADDITION, IT SHOWS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SMOKE IN OUR CWA TO THE SOUTH OF I-70. THE SMOKE,
COMBINED WITH THE HEAT, IS HELPING TO CREATE UNPLEASANT
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 30-50%
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED
DESPITE WHAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD EXPECTED. KFNL, KLMO,
AND KBDU ALL HAD DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S AT 1:15PM RESULTING IN
BETTER INSTABILITY THAN FORECAST. THIS MAY LEAD TO MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS THAT LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM THE FOOTHILLS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
BETTER 500 AND 250 MB FLOW ALOFT EACH DAY RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BETWEEN 25-35 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AND 30-40 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. WITH MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BRINGING
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. SPC HAS THE EASTERN PLAINS OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT EACH
DAY. THE STORMS, CLOUDS, AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND WILL
POSITION ITSELF ROUGHLY OVER WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY -3 TO -5 C OVER OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AND CLOUD COVER.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE POSITION OF THIS RIDGE IS THAT
SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALMOST OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. IF THIS VERIFIES, IT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO MOIST,
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IF THE WINDS DON'T
END UP BEING EASTERLY AND KEEP MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT,
TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAT ADVISORIES. TO THE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, THE LIKELY DOWNSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 90S IN THE
MIDDLE PARK AND THE LOW 90S IN NORTH PARK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF KDEN,
EAST OF KAPA. AS SUCH, WE EXPECT WINDS AT KDEN TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
EASTERLY BEFORE TURNING TO THE ENE-NE AROUND 20Z. WINDS AT KAPA AND
KBJC ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT BUT LIKELY TO KEEP A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (MORE NE FOR KBJC).
AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUD COVERAGE IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED WITH
SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. WE HAVE KEPT THE
TEMPO FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z FOR THE THREE AIRPORTS, ALTHOUGH
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY REACH THE VICINITY OF KBJC AND KAPA AS EARLY
AS 19Z. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH TODAY'S STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DRY
MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING (00Z-03Z) AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS REACH
THE DENVER METRO AREA. LIGHT S-SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A VERY SIMILAR SETUP
WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE WE EXPECT HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE DENVER METRO WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING GUSTY OUTFLOWS (35-40KT GUSTS).
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SLANT-RANGE
VISIBILITY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DECREASING CONCENTRATIONS DUE TO A
SHIFT TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE KEPT SMOKE OUT OF THE TAF FOR TOMORROW.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...AA
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