196
FXUS65 KBOU 080600
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. IN ADDITION, IT SHOWS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SMOKE IN OUR CWA TO THE SOUTH OF I-70. THE SMOKE,
COMBINED WITH THE HEAT, IS HELPING TO CREATE UNPLEASANT
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 30-50%
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED
DESPITE WHAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD EXPECTED. KFNL, KLMO,
AND KBDU ALL HAD DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S AT 1:15PM RESULTING IN
BETTER INSTABILITY THAN FORECAST. THIS MAY LEAD TO MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS THAT LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM THE FOOTHILLS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
BETTER 500 AND 250 MB FLOW ALOFT EACH DAY RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BETWEEN 25-35 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AND 30-40 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. WITH MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BRINGING
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. SPC HAS THE EASTERN PLAINS OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT EACH
DAY. THE STORMS, CLOUDS, AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND WILL
POSITION ITSELF ROUGHLY OVER WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY -3 TO -5 C OVER OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AND CLOUD COVER.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE POSITION OF THIS RIDGE IS THAT
SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALMOST OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. IF THIS VERIFIES, IT WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO MOIST,
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IF THE WINDS DON'T
END UP BEING EASTERLY AND KEEP MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT,
TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAT ADVISORIES. TO THE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, THE LIKELY DOWNSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 90S IN THE
MIDDLE PARK AND THE LOW 90S IN NORTH PARK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TURN
NORTH/NORTHEAST BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE FOOTHILLS AROUND 18Z TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL THEN PUSH
EASTWARD IMPACTING ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED, SO WE HAVE A TEMPO AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES (BJC STARTS AT 19Z AND APA AND DEN START AT 20Z). THE
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AROUND 00Z, WITH
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. WINDS AFTER THE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH ARE A BIT TRICKY. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE NE TO SE WINDS
TURNING VARIABLE AFTER THE STORMS PUSH EAST, BUT WE COULD SEE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH ANY OF THE TAF SITES FROM STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...AP
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