614
FXUS65 KBOU 090605
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1205 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY,
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EXPANDING FURTHER WEST TO THE FRONT
RANGE.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY, LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW DURING
THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
WARM, DRY, AND GUSTY WEST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK WAVE WILL HELP PRODUCE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. RADAR SHOWS A BOUNDARY ACROSS WELD COUNTY WHERE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MEET THE NORTHEAST WINDS. EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY, THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE USHERING IN MOISTURE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TODAY IS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO MUCH BETTER
MOISTURE, ML CAPE REACHES 500-1500J/KG. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AS WELL. STORMS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS,
EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK.
FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME WITH A FEW
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. WE'LL SEE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY AS A SPEED MAX PASSES OVER THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW
FAR WEST IT WILL BE. WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES, WE'LL SEE
MLCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG AND PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE AS
THEY TRAVEL EASTWARD, ENCOUNTERING BETTER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE. HIGH-RES MODELS FAVOR A COUPLE LINE SEGMENTS. OR
POSSIBLY ONE LARGE LINE TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS HOURS, FAVORING A STRONG WIND
THREAT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY, HELPING TO HOLD ONTO BETTER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND EASTERN
PLAINS.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWARD AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY HELP HOLD SOME
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, HOWEVER WARM AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE, AND PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THEN REMAINS SEMI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD AND PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH COOLING TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW 100 DEGREE HEAT FROM OCCURRING. THESE EAST
WINDS LIKELY HOLD IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS WELL. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. STEERING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST, MEANING STORMS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT WHEN THEY
DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP THE URBAN CORRIDOR DRY THIS WEEKEND AND
FOR MOST (PERHAPS ALL) OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT, WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING, BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST
BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
STORMS, WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF 19Z TO 23Z FOR KBJC AND 20Z
TO 23Z FOR KDEN AND KAPA. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW FROM STORMS.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. THE WINDS AFTER THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN, THANKS TO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS TO THE EAST POTENTIALLY CAUSING
SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS INTO THE LATE EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...AP
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