585
FXUS65 KBOU 101720
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1120 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY,
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- HINTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE REACHING THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE NEXT
WEEK?
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WE'LL END THE WEEK WITH ONE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS, BEFORE A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS AND WE
ENTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE STILL
EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH THE
CENTER OF A 500MB RIDGE CURRENTLY NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO HOVER
AROUND 0.35-0.45" ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH PW VALUES CLOSER
TO 0.7-0.8" ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS, THOUGH A WEAK CAP IS EVIDENT IN MOST MODELS. STILL, MOST
CAMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE, WHICH EVENTUALLY DRIFT INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PLAINS
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY CONVECTION, THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A MEANINGFUL (WETTING)
RAINFALL LOOK RATHER LOW (<20%).
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD... SETTLING NEAR
WYOMING ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT TIMES, 500MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 600 DAM... WHICH
EQUATES TO ROUGHLY A 2.5-3.5 SIGMA STANDARDIZED ANOMALY.
UNSURPRISINGLY, THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS MIDDLE/NORTH PARK, WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. 700MB TEMPERATURES
AT TIMES WILL EXCEED 22C ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE, WHICH FALLS OUTSIDE THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE ECMWF/NAEFS FOR
A FEW DAYS. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS STILL FLIRT WITH
ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS AT KREMMLING (94F), WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WALDEN AS WELL.
WHILE THE DENVER METRO AND PLAINS WILL MISS THE CORE OF THE HEAT
(AND WILL ALSO AVOID ANY REAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW),
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR GIVEN A LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES (MID 60S).
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A
RESULT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE RATHER BULLISH
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (NV/UT/AZ/WY). EVEN SO, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND WILL TAKE ON AN
INCREASINGLY EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION. THE WINDOW HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LATER, FOCUSED BETWEEN
23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF IMPACTS TO
KDEN BETWEEN 01-03Z. CONFIDENCE IN TRUE TSRA IMPACTS IS LOWER THAN
THAT FOR OUTFLOW WINDS (~30% VS 50-60% RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL
SWING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING INTO DRAINAGE
FLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...BRQ
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