339
FNUS75 KBOU 230011
FWSBOU
SPOT FORECAST FOR UTE RD...ELK CREEK FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
611 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
THIS LOCATION IS WITHIN THE PERIMETER OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH 1800. EXPECT SMALLER STREAMS AND DRAINAGES TO HAVE HIGHER
WATER THAN NORMAL, BUT THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THIS HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE AREA, AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SHOW RH RANGING
FROM AROUND 70%-80%. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW
AND GENERALLY 10MPH OR LESS. MORE RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO THE WEST BEHIND ANY PRECIPITATION AND REMAIN
UNDER 10MPH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SIMILAR
TODAY, THEY SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS, WITH THE AREA FORECAST
TO HAVE AROUND 70-75% CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS. RH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND MORE LIGHTNING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH
AN AFTERNOON TRANSITION TO THE N, TO NE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THE PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100,
THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
CWR.................48 PERCENT DECREASING TO 4 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...41 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 2000, THEN WEST 5
TO 7 MPH UNTIL 2200, THEN AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL
2400, THEN VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
2400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL UNTIL 2000, THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 1900, THEN WEST 8 TO 9
MPH UNTIL 2100, THEN NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH
UNTIL 2300, THEN WEST UNTIL 0200, THEN LIGHT
UNTIL 0300, THEN WEST 8 TO 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........83 85 89 86 88 83 78 63 58 52 56 53
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............50 50 50 30 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).40 40 40 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0
TEMP............79 75 74 71 69 67 66 64 62 59 58 57
RH..............42 50 53 61 66 68 68 70 75 80 80 80
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NW W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.12 9 8 8 7 6 3 3 3 3 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N W W W NW SW W W SW W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 6 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 8 9 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..13 6 5 4 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 4
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P P P P P P P P
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 0700, THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 0800, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AFTER 1200. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1500.
CWR.................4 PERCENT INCREASING TO 71 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...71 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 0800, THEN AROUND 5
MPH UNTIL 1000, THEN VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH UNTIL
1100, THEN NORTH AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1200, THEN
NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800, THEN 2300 FT AGL
UNTIL 1000, THEN 5600 FT AGL UNTIL 1400, THEN
2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0700, THEN 8 TO 10 MPH
UNTIL 0900, THEN 8 TO 9 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN
LIGHT UNTIL 1300, THEN NORTHEAST 8 TO 11 MPH
UNTIL 1500, THEN LIGHT UNTIL 1600, THEN NORTH 8
TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........49 54 39 30 33 39 84 84 84 81 81 81
WEATHER COV..... DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 70 70 70 70 70 70
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 70 70 70 70 70 70
TEMP............56 57 62 69 76 78 78 76 76 78 74 74
RH..............83 86 78 66 54 50 50 54 52 48 55 57
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W NW N NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.0 2.6 4.1 5.9 5.6 4.5 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W N NE NE SE N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 7 7 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 3 6 15 21 36 34 32 22 15 16 17
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P P P P P P P P
FORECASTER...BONNER
REQUESTED BY...JEFFCOM911
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2618008.0/BOU
.DELDT 07/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL KYLE.ATKISSON@JEFFCOM911CO.GOV,SUPERVISORS@JEFFCOM911CO.GOV
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