520
FXUS65 KBOU 260540
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1140 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT THIS WEEKEND
- HEAT ADVISORY EXPANDS TO ALL OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY AS HEAT
BUILDS
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
IT'S A HOT DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 95-102F RANGE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SPREAD EASTWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 0.90
TO 1.25 (IN) ACROSS THE PLAINS, SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM
NIGHT AND HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN SUNDAY, POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER. SOME RECORDED HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE TIED
OR BROKEN. THE AIRMASS DRIES A LITTLE SUNDAY, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY'S.
MONDAY'S FORECAST WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING AND UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO WHILE THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NUDGED SOUTH. WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.25 TO
1.5 (IN) ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL (~99TH
PERCENTILE AT 1.5 (IN)). THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUD COVER MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, BUT BY HOW MUCH DEPENDS HOW
EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BE
LIMITED IF CLOUDS LINGER FOR MOST/ALL OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE
SHORTWAVE MAY HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAKING THE FORECAST
A TRICKY ONE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND WESTWARD TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL, WITH READINGS
CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND THE HIGH'S CENTER SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BECOMES
LESS CLEAR, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS LESS MOISTURE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING AT 06Z, BUT THEN WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT 09Z-12Z. A QUICKER THAN NORMAL TURN
TO W-NW-N EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING 17Z-00Z.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY THROW SOME VRB
WINDS AT THE AIRPORTS ANYTIME 21/22Z-06Z TOMORROW EVENING. WE'VE
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
RECORD HEAT WILL LEAD TO ABNORMALLY HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE (9,000
FEET OR MORE) DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS SUNDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ038>040-
042>051.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...20
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