968
FXUS65 KBOU 301746
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1146 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- HEAT RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING
UP TO 100 F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONGOING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN, WITH A FEW OF THEM SPILLING ONTO THE PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
DO HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE
FOOTHILLS (40 MPH AROUND THE BOULDER AREA). WITH THE PASSING OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY, OUR SOURCE FOR MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS FAVOR STORMS FORMING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND TREKKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WHERE THEY WILL TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE, AND THUS BETTER
INSTABILITY. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 60 MPH WINDS AND HAIL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5). IN ADDITION, WITH PWS STILL OVER AN INCH, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER, FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN, GIVEN FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING 'COOLER' TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY, WITH FORECASTED HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. MODELED SKEW-
T SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES, BUT INSTABILITY
SEEMS TO BE LACKING. DENVER METRO AND AREAS SOUTH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH HAIL AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESTRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE HIGHS REACHING UP TO 100 BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE
PLAINS. AFTER THAT, MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
DISTURBANCES, WE COULD BE SEEING 'COOLER' TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
(UNFORTUNATELY IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED), WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO GO INTO
THE DETAILS YET AS THINGS COULD STILL CHANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
TDEN AND KTFG VELOCITY DATA SHOW A CHANNEL OF STRONGER WNWERLY
WINDS STRETCHING FROM BJC TOWARDS DEN. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE NORTH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY HELP TURN WINDS
TO A STEADIER NW/NNW DIRECTION BY ABOUT 20-21Z. THERE IS STILL AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
GIVEN THE DEEPER MIXING ACROSS THE DENVER AREA SO FAR,
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY WEAK SHRA/TSRA WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ANY DIRECT TS IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINAL.
TONIGHT'S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED, AS A WEAK FRONTAL
PUSH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME AROUND 06Z. MOST OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE SO FAR OFFERS LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN HOW STRONG THIS FRONT
IS (AND AS A RESULT, HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH IT). THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A PUSH OF WEAK NNE WINDS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CLOSER TO 12Z ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS
ARE RATHER BULLISH WITH THE STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AM. HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOURS OF FEW010 AT DEN/BJC FOR
NOW BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THE FRONT LOOKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY SORT OF LOWER CIGS.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY.
ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE, BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...HIRIS
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