260
FXUS65 KBOU 010822
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
222 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING UP TO THE 100S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING.
- A LITTLE COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
BIT OF A QUIET WEEKEND AHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHICH WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HEAT,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UP TO THE MID-90S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS
TODAY, WITH OVERALL CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DUE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY FILTER IN AGAIN. THIS MAY CREATE HAZY SKIES.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, ONLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS POSSIBLE (~20% CHANCE) IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY, THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO COLORADO. 700-MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UP TO 19-22 C, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO UPPER 90S TO LOW 10S ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD BREAK
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. DENVER'S CURRENT
RECORD FOR AUGUST 2 IS 101 F SET IN 2012, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS 100 F. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING GREELEY, SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE HEAT AFTER
MONDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE "COOLER" AIR
STICKS AROUND, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE VARYING BETWEEN MODELS AND
MODEL RUNS. NBM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK. THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES
RETURNING, WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AGAIN. DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND RESULTING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE WILL RECEIVE MUCH MONSOON MOISTURE.
ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH DRAINAGE FLOW RETURNING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW, WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND NO CEILINGS
ISSUES.
THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS SMOKE CONCENTRATION FOR TOMORROW. GUIDANCE
FAVORS WORST OF THE NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE TO STAY EAST OF ALL THE
AIRPORTS (BESIDES POSSIBLY BJC IN THE MORNING). FOR THIS REASON,
HAVE TAKEN ANY MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE TAF. HOWEVER, MAY NEED TO
PUT IT BACK IN THE TAF IF GUIDANCE CHANGES.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ038>043.
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MAI
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