131
FXUS65 KBOU 170532
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1132 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT STILL
ISOLATED GUSTY PM STORMS/VIRGA.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
- WARMER AGAIN THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LIKELY RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
RICH, LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS BUILDING MLCAPE
INTO THE 1000-1800 J/KG RANGE. LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
PRETTY HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE, BUT WE ARE WARMING AND SHOULD AT
LEAST GET CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF COURSE IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS (ALREADY
ONGOING), BUT ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
CHEYENNE RIDGE. STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION ONCE THEY DEVELOP, AND A WEAKENING CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW PROPAGATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR. BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TO 30-35 KTS, SO ENOUGH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. THUS, LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH
MID EVENING. IT SHOULD BE WORTH NOTING THAT WE'LL BE UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX, SO WEAK FORCING
SHOULD HELP COVERAGE A BIT SO WE DID BUMP POPS UP EVER SO
SLIGHTLY, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THAT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX COULD ALSO
AID STORMS TO LAST A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING THAN NORMAL.
WE STILL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, AND ENOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THAT PUTS OUR FORECAST INTO A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
WARMING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
OVER THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WE'LL STILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
LATE DAY CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WOULD BE
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF JUST ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SPRINKLES
AND MICROBURSTS AS DCAPE GROWS TO ~1500 J/KG. SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH FURTHER WARMING OF A FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY. ALSO, A LATE AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GROWING HIGH BASED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE INTO
THE TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF STORMS AGAIN AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
AND MORE MOIST. AVERAGE MLCAPE FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST
1000-2000 J/KG, WHILE BULK SHEAR IS AN IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KTS SO A
GROWING SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE IN THE PICTURE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE DRIER AGAIN AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES, THIS TIME ACROSS COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THAT MEANS
A STRONGER THERMAL RIDGE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR. WHILE THE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THAT WOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER/STORMS AS WELL, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES HOLDING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
BREEZIER SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15KTS AT KAPA AND KDEN WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 09Z. DRAINAGE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT KDEN
AND KAPA, BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATE
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBJC WILL BE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EARLY
MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND 14Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, BUT IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED
AND LESS DENSE THEN THIS MORNING. IMPACTS FROM FOG ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. TOMORROW THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (<20%) NEAR THE TAF SITES, BUT COVERAGE
IS FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. A
FEW MODELS ARE HINTING AT STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS IMPACTING KDEN
AND KAPA AROUND 02Z TO 05Z TOMORROW. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME TO SEE IF IT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE TAF IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...AP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page