008
FXUS65 KBOU 172322
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
522 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER ON TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
- WARMER AGAIN THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LIKELY RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS NOW OVER MOST OF THE STATE TODAY... AND
UNSURPRISINGLY THAT HAS LED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION, ALONG WITH FAR LESS CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE'VE SEEN A RETURN TO 90S TODAY (92F AT DEN SO FAR), WITH DEW
POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE METRO. WE HAVEN'T
COMPLETELY MIXED OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE EASTERLY PLAINS, WHERE THERE
ARE STILL MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS AND MODEST MLCAPE. GUIDANCE
STILL TRIES TO SPIT OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THERE AND THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER
STORMS ASSUMING WE GET A REAL ATTEMPT AT CI AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE
TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD INTRODUCE SOME BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY (ALONG
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR) WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE A
COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS YET AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
STRONGER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, THOUGH WE WON'T SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEARLY AS HIGH AS
WE DID WITH OUR PREVIOUS RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WILL RETURN BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE DENVER METRO WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO MAKE A BRIEF RETURN.
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE HIGHER POPS, THOUGH ONCE AGAIN THE
NBM IS LIKELY A BIT TOO BULLISH WITH POP COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
A BOUNDARY WAS MOVING TOWARDS DIA FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD ARRIVE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 0030Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE. BY 02Z WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SSE BY 04Z. BY 07Z WINDS WILL
BECOME DRAINAGE AND THEN LIGHT WESTERLY BY 11Z. AT BJC EXPECT A NE
WIND SHIFT BY 01Z WITH WINDS BECOMNING NW BY 04Z. AT APA, THIS
BOUNDARY MAY WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THERE AS WINDS STAY FROM
THE SOUTH.
ON TUE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME NE
BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP IN A PROB30 BY 20Z, FOR
-TSRA WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...RPK
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