066
FXUS65 KBOU 201802
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1202 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY, WITH A
FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
- MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND HOLDS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF STORMS.
- THE URBAN CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH AT KDEN IS 97 DEGREES, WHICH PUTS US WITHIN TWO
DEGREES OF TYING THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE (99F SET IN
2023) CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO WRAP AROUND
THE RIDGE THAT WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS IF THEY CAN MANAGE TO MAKE IT ONTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1200 TO 1600 J/KG. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MANAGES TO REACH
THE GROUND IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT, WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
BY SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE
BULLISH THAN THE GFS, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 140-180% OF NORMAL
COMPARED TO 100-160%, RESPECTIVELY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT WILL KEEP DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS,
BRINGING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS TODAY IS NEAR ZERO. WE
EXPECT WINDS OVER THE AREA TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 01Z. FOR
TONIGHT, DRAINAGE S/SSW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT KDEN AND KAPA, AND
A LIGHT WSW (<7KT) WIND AT KBJC.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE THREAT FOR DRY MICROBURSTS
PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KT. WE HAVE ALREADY INTRODUCED
A PROB30 FOR KDEN BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING MAY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WITH THE NEXT TAF IF MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A LATER
START FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE AS MOISTURE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LIMITED AT THE LOW LEVELS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...AA
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