373
UXUS97 KBOU 300116
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1914 MDT SATURDAY, AUGUST 29, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SUNDAY, AUGUST 30, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 81.0 F/27.2 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 901 FT/MIN (4.6 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 14872 FT MSL (9576 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 90.0 F/32.7 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1045 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ 1400 MDT
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... OVERCAST THIN HIGH
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 11374 FT MSL (6078 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 08/31....... GOOD
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... LITTLE CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 21276 FT MSL (15980 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 08/31.......... POOR
REMARKS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:26:03 / 19:34:01 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 13 HR 7 MIN 58 SEC (787 MIN 58 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:00:02 MDT... 59.02 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 08/30/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 16551 FT MSL (11255 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 14647 FT MSL (9351 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 14828 FT MSL (9532 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -3.1
K INDEX......................... +27.2
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.9 -83.0 250 41 21 1.7 0.9 M M M M M
45000 -60.8 -77.4 245 52 27 2.9 1.6 M M M M M
40000 -54.6 -66.3 220 54 28 9.8 5.4 M M M M M
38000 -48.8 -55.8 215 51 27 9.7 5.3 M M M M M
36000 -43.0 -45.4 215 49 25 9.4 5.2 M M M M M
34000 -37.8 -36.0 220 50 26 8.6 4.7 M M M M M
32000 -32.6 -26.7 230 53 27 8.6 4.7 M M M M M
30000 -28.1 -18.6 240 44 22 6.4 3.5 47.7 117.8 11.7 M M
29000 -26.2 -15.2 250 40 20 6.4 3.5 46.5 115.6 10.9 M M
28000 -24.2 -11.6 260 37 19 7.7 4.2 45.4 113.6 10.2 M M
27000 -21.9 -7.4 260 33 17 7.5 4.1 44.4 112.0 9.6 M M
26000 -19.7 -3.5 260 29 15 7.5 4.1 43.6 110.5 9.1 M M
25000 -17.4 0.7 260 25 13 7.7 4.2 42.9 109.2 8.6 M M
24000 -15.1 4.8 250 23 12 8.0 4.4 42.1 107.8 8.0 M M
23000 -12.8 9.0 235 21 11 8.1 4.4 41.5 106.7 7.5 M M
22000 -10.4 13.3 220 21 11 7.1 3.9 41.0 105.8 7.1 M M
21000 -8.8 16.2 220 22 11 5.8 3.2 39.5 103.1 5.8 M M
20000 -7.2 19.0 225 22 11 5.8 3.2 38.1 100.6 4.5 M M
19500 -6.4 20.5 225 22 12 5.7 3.1 37.5 99.4 3.9 M M
19000 -5.4 22.3 225 22 12 7.4 4.0 36.9 98.5 3.4 M M
18500 -4.4 24.1 230 22 11 7.2 4.0 36.5 97.6 3.1 M M
18000 -3.3 26.1 230 21 11 7.3 4.0 36.0 96.9 2.7 M M
17500 -2.2 28.0 230 21 11 7.4 4.1 35.6 96.1 2.3 M M
17000 -1.2 29.8 230 21 11 7.4 4.1 35.2 95.4 1.9 M M
16500 -0.1 31.8 235 20 10 6.9 3.8 34.8 94.6 1.5 M M
16000 0.9 33.6 235 19 10 7.0 3.8 34.3 93.8 1.1 M M
15500 1.9 35.4 240 19 10 7.1 3.9 33.9 93.0 0.7 M M
15000 3.5 38.3 245 17 9 7.3 4.0 33.2 91.8 0.0 M M
14500 4.5 40.1 245 16 8 7.1 3.9 32.8 91.1 -0.4 756 3.8
14000 5.5 41.9 250 15 8 7.1 3.9 32.4 90.3 -0.9 711 3.6
13500 6.5 43.7 255 14 7 7.1 3.9 32.0 89.5 -1.3 666 3.4
13000 7.5 45.5 260 15 8 7.0 3.9 31.5 88.7 -1.8 620 3.2
12500 8.5 47.3 265 15 8 7.2 4.0 31.1 88.0 -2.2 575 2.9
12000 9.6 49.3 265 15 8 7.6 4.2 30.7 87.3 -2.6 528 2.7
11500 10.7 51.3 265 15 8 7.6 4.2 30.4 86.7 -2.9 480 2.4
11000 11.8 53.2 265 15 8 7.4 4.0 30.0 86.1 -3.3 433 2.2
10500 12.9 55.2 265 14 7 3.8 2.1 29.7 85.5 -3.7 386 2.0
10250 13.0 55.4 265 14 7 4.4 2.4 29.1 84.4 -4.3 374 1.9
10000 13.7 56.7 260 13 7 9.6 5.3 29.0 84.2 -4.4 348 1.8
9750 14.3 57.7 260 13 6 8.3 4.6 28.9 84.0 -4.6 322 1.6
9500 14.9 58.8 260 12 6 8.2 4.5 28.8 83.8 -4.7 296 1.5
9250 15.4 59.7 255 11 6 7.1 3.9 28.6 83.6 -4.9 272 1.4
9000 15.9 60.6 255 10 5 6.7 3.7 28.4 83.2 -5.1 250 1.3
8750 16.4 61.5 255 9 5 6.8 3.7 28.2 82.7 -5.4 228 1.2
8500 16.9 62.4 250 8 4 6.4 3.5 28.0 82.3 -5.6 206 1.0
8250 17.4 63.3 245 8 4 6.1 3.3 27.7 81.8 -5.9 185 0.9
8000 17.8 64.0 240 7 4 5.6 3.1 27.4 81.3 -6.2 165 0.8
7750 18.2 64.8 235 6 3 5.3 2.9 27.0 80.7 -6.6 146 0.7
7500 18.5 65.3 225 6 3 4.7 2.6 26.7 80.1 -6.9 128 0.6
7250 18.8 65.8 215 6 3 4.2 2.3 26.3 79.3 -7.4 111 0.6
7000 19.1 66.4 210 6 3 4.2 2.3 25.9 78.6 -7.8 95 0.5
6750 19.4 66.9 200 6 3 3.0 1.6 25.4 77.7 -8.3 80 0.4
6500 19.5 67.1 195 7 4 1.5 0.8 24.8 76.7 -9.0 69 0.4
6250 19.5 67.1 190 8 4 0.9 0.5 24.2 75.5 -9.7 61 0.3
6000 19.6 67.3 185 9 4 1.8 1.0 23.5 74.4 -10.4 52 0.3
5750 19.7 67.5 185 10 5 0.4 0.2 22.9 73.3 -11.1 42 0.2
5500 19.4 66.9 185 8 4 -4.9 -2.7 22.0 71.7 -12.1 43 0.2
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
08/30/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 08/30/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +185.5 LI... -0.3 | CAPE... +400.0 LI... -2.1
CINH... -154.9 K INDEX... +25.4 | CINH... -40.6 K INDEX... +27.7
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.5 -82.3 245 39 20 1.5 0.8 | -62.8 -81.0 235 39 20 2.2 1.2
45000 -59.9 -75.8 240 56 29 3.8 2.1 | -59.0 -74.2 235 58 30 2.7 1.5
40000 -53.3 -63.9 230 59 30 8.3 4.6 | -53.8 -64.8 230 68 35 8.2 4.5
38000 -48.3 -54.9 225 57 29 8.3 4.5 | -48.9 -56.0 230 66 34 8.2 4.5
36000 -43.3 -45.9 220 56 29 8.2 4.5 | -43.9 -47.0 225 64 33 8.2 4.5
34000 -38.5 -37.3 225 55 28 8.0 4.4 | -38.9 -38.0 230 59 30 8.5 4.6
32000 -33.8 -28.8 230 55 28 7.8 4.3 | -33.8 -28.8 230 55 28 8.4 4.6
30000 -28.7 -19.7 235 45 23 7.4 4.0 | -29.2 -20.6 235 48 25 6.5 3.6
29000 -26.5 -15.7 235 40 21 7.4 4.1 | -27.3 -17.1 240 45 23 6.5 3.6
28000 -24.3 -11.7 240 36 18 6.4 3.5 | -25.3 -13.5 240 42 21 7.9 4.3
27000 -22.4 -8.3 245 33 17 6.6 3.6 | -23.0 -9.4 235 38 20 7.8 4.3
26000 -20.4 -4.7 250 30 16 6.6 3.6 | -20.7 -5.3 230 35 18 7.8 4.3
25000 -18.5 -1.3 260 28 14 7.1 3.9 | -18.3 -0.9 225 32 16 7.5 4.1
24000 -16.2 2.8 250 24 13 8.0 4.4 | -16.2 2.8 220 30 16 7.2 3.9
23000 -13.9 7.0 240 21 11 8.0 4.4 | -14.1 6.6 220 29 15 7.2 3.9
22000 -11.5 11.3 230 19 10 7.5 4.1 | -11.9 10.6 215 28 14 6.8 3.7
21000 -9.5 14.9 230 19 10 6.8 3.8 | -10.1 13.8 220 26 13 6.4 3.5
20000 -7.5 18.5 235 19 10 6.9 3.8 | -8.3 17.1 230 24 12 6.6 3.6
19500 -6.6 20.1 235 20 10 6.9 3.8 | -7.4 18.7 230 24 12 6.5 3.6
19000 -5.6 21.9 235 19 10 6.7 3.7 | -6.3 20.7 235 23 12 8.0 4.4
18500 -4.6 23.7 235 18 9 6.7 3.7 | -5.2 22.6 230 24 12 7.9 4.3
18000 -3.6 25.5 235 18 9 6.5 3.6 | -4.0 24.8 230 24 12 7.2 3.9
17500 -2.7 27.1 235 16 8 6.2 3.4 | -3.1 26.4 230 21 11 6.5 3.6
17000 -1.8 28.8 230 15 8 6.1 3.3 | -2.2 28.0 230 18 9 6.5 3.6
16500 -0.9 30.4 230 14 7 7.3 4.0 | -1.2 29.8 230 16 8 6.6 3.6
16000 0.2 32.4 230 13 6 7.2 3.9 | -0.3 31.5 225 14 7 6.6 3.6
15500 1.8 35.2 230 11 5 7.5 4.1 | 1.2 34.2 220 11 6 7.3 4.0
15000 2.9 37.2 230 9 5 7.5 4.1 | 2.3 36.1 215 10 5 7.1 3.9
14500 4.0 39.2 235 8 4 8.2 4.5 | 3.4 38.1 215 9 5 8.9 4.9
14000 5.2 41.4 245 8 4 8.2 4.5 | 4.8 40.6 220 9 5 8.9 4.9
13500 6.4 43.5 255 9 5 8.0 4.4 | 6.1 43.0 225 9 5 9.5 5.2
13000 7.6 45.7 265 11 5 7.9 4.3 | 7.5 45.5 245 11 6 9.6 5.3
12500 8.7 47.7 275 13 6 7.9 4.3 | 9.0 48.2 255 14 7 8.5 4.6
12000 9.9 49.8 280 16 8 7.8 4.3 | 10.0 50.0 265 18 9 7.2 3.9
11500 11.0 51.8 285 19 10 7.3 4.0 | 11.1 52.0 275 22 11 6.8 3.7
11000 11.9 53.4 285 20 11 6.0 3.3 | 11.9 53.4 275 22 11 6.1 3.4
10500 12.8 55.0 285 22 11 3.6 2.0 | 12.8 55.0 280 22 11 2.8 1.6
10250 13.0 55.4 285 22 11 5.3 2.9 | 12.9 55.2 280 22 11 4.4 2.4
10000 13.6 56.5 280 21 11 9.7 5.3 | 13.5 56.3 280 19 10 10.0 5.5
9750 14.2 57.6 280 19 10 8.9 4.9 | 14.1 57.4 275 16 8 8.7 4.8
9500 14.9 58.8 280 18 9 7.8 4.3 | 14.7 58.5 275 14 7 8.3 4.6
9250 15.3 59.5 280 17 9 6.1 3.3 | 15.3 59.5 270 12 6 7.9 4.3
9000 15.8 60.4 280 16 8 7.9 4.3 | 15.9 60.6 270 11 6 9.8 5.4
8750 16.4 61.5 280 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 16.7 62.1 265 10 5 10.7 5.9
8500 17.1 62.8 280 15 7 8.2 4.5 | 17.4 63.3 265 9 5 9.9 5.4
8250 17.6 63.7 280 13 7 7.4 4.0 | 18.1 64.6 265 9 5 9.1 5.0
8000 18.1 64.6 275 12 6 7.4 4.1 | 18.8 65.8 265 9 5 9.7 5.3
7750 18.7 65.7 275 10 5 7.5 4.1 | 19.6 67.3 260 9 5 10.3 5.6
7500 19.2 66.6 270 8 4 7.1 3.9 | 20.3 68.5 260 9 4 10.3 5.6
7250 19.7 67.5 265 7 4 6.7 3.7 | 21.1 70.0 260 9 4 10.4 5.7
7000 20.2 68.4 255 6 3 7.1 3.9 | 21.9 71.4 260 8 4 10.2 5.6
6750 20.7 69.3 245 5 2 6.9 3.8 | 22.6 72.7 260 8 4 10.0 5.5
6500 21.2 70.2 225 4 2 5.1 2.8 | 23.4 74.1 260 8 4 10.2 5.6
6250 21.5 70.7 210 5 2 5.0 2.8 | 24.2 75.6 260 8 4 11.0 6.0
6000 21.8 71.2 200 5 3 2.6 1.4 | 24.9 76.8 260 8 4 8.9 4.9
5750 21.9 71.4 190 7 3 5.3 2.9 | 25.7 78.3 260 8 4 14.3 7.8
5500 22.8 73.0 190 6 3 19.2 10.6 | 27.3 81.1 260 7 4 29.2 16.0
08/30/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 08/30/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +129.2 LI... -1.2 | CAPE... +164.5 LI... -2.6
CINH... -51.6 K INDEX... +23.9 | CINH... -32.1 K INDEX... +33.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.4 -80.3 240 43 22 2.2 1.2 | -64.1 -83.4 245 49 25 1.8 1.0
45000 -58.9 -74.0 245 61 31 2.4 1.3 | -60.2 -76.4 245 65 33 3.8 2.1
40000 -54.0 -65.2 235 72 37 8.2 4.5 | -53.6 -64.5 235 71 37 8.2 4.5
38000 -49.1 -56.4 230 65 34 8.2 4.5 | -48.7 -55.7 230 70 36 8.1 4.5
36000 -44.2 -47.6 225 59 30 8.2 4.5 | -43.9 -47.0 230 69 35 8.1 4.5
34000 -39.2 -38.6 230 56 29 8.3 4.6 | -39.1 -38.4 235 63 32 8.0 4.4
32000 -34.2 -29.6 230 53 27 8.3 4.5 | -34.3 -29.7 240 56 29 7.9 4.3
30000 -29.4 -20.9 235 47 24 6.9 3.8 | -29.2 -20.6 245 50 26 7.5 4.1
29000 -27.4 -17.3 240 45 23 6.9 3.8 | -26.9 -16.4 245 47 24 7.5 4.1
28000 -25.2 -13.4 240 43 22 8.0 4.4 | -24.7 -12.5 245 44 23 7.4 4.1
27000 -22.9 -9.2 240 41 21 7.9 4.3 | -22.5 -8.5 245 43 22 7.4 4.1
26000 -20.5 -4.9 240 39 20 7.8 4.3 | -20.3 -4.5 245 41 21 7.4 4.1
25000 -18.1 -0.6 240 37 19 7.0 3.9 | -18.1 -0.6 240 39 20 7.0 3.9
24000 -16.4 2.5 235 36 19 6.0 3.3 | -16.1 3.0 240 36 19 6.6 3.6
23000 -14.7 5.5 235 35 18 6.2 3.4 | -14.2 6.4 235 33 17 6.7 3.7
22000 -13.0 8.6 235 34 17 6.8 3.7 | -12.3 9.9 235 31 16 6.7 3.7
21000 -10.9 12.4 240 32 17 7.2 4.0 | -10.4 13.3 240 30 15 6.7 3.7
20000 -8.8 16.2 245 31 16 7.2 4.0 | -8.5 16.7 250 29 15 6.8 3.7
19500 -7.7 18.1 245 30 16 7.2 4.0 | -7.5 18.5 250 29 15 6.9 3.8
19000 -6.6 20.1 250 30 15 7.5 4.1 | -6.5 20.3 255 28 14 6.9 3.8
18500 -5.5 22.1 250 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -5.6 21.9 255 27 14 6.9 3.8
18000 -4.4 24.1 255 28 15 7.5 4.1 | -4.6 23.7 255 25 13 7.2 4.0
17500 -3.3 26.1 255 27 14 7.6 4.1 | -3.5 25.7 255 24 12 7.5 4.1
17000 -2.2 28.0 255 26 14 7.6 4.1 | -2.4 27.7 250 23 12 7.5 4.1
16500 -1.1 30.0 260 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -1.4 29.5 250 22 11 7.0 3.8
16000 0.1 32.2 260 24 13 7.6 4.2 | -0.4 31.3 250 21 11 7.0 3.8
15500 1.2 34.2 260 23 12 8.0 4.4 | 0.6 33.1 245 20 10 8.0 4.4
15000 3.0 37.4 265 22 11 8.1 4.4 | 2.4 36.3 240 18 9 8.1 4.4
14500 4.2 39.6 265 21 11 7.8 4.3 | 3.7 38.7 235 17 9 9.9 5.4
14000 5.3 41.5 265 20 10 7.8 4.3 | 5.2 41.4 235 17 9 9.9 5.4
13500 6.5 43.7 265 19 10 8.1 4.4 | 6.6 43.9 230 16 8 9.7 5.3
13000 7.7 45.9 265 18 9 8.2 4.5 | 8.0 46.4 225 16 8 9.6 5.3
12500 8.9 48.0 265 18 9 8.4 4.6 | 9.4 48.9 225 15 8 9.5 5.2
12000 10.1 50.2 265 15 8 8.6 4.7 | 10.8 51.4 220 14 7 9.4 5.2
11500 11.3 52.3 260 13 7 8.6 4.7 | 12.2 54.0 215 14 7 9.1 5.0
11000 12.6 54.7 265 13 7 8.3 4.5 | 13.5 56.3 210 12 6 8.5 4.6
10500 13.9 57.0 270 12 6 5.3 2.9 | 14.8 58.6 205 11 6 4.5 2.5
10250 14.2 57.6 270 12 6 5.9 3.2 | 15.0 59.0 205 11 6 5.2 2.9
10000 14.9 58.8 270 12 6 10.3 5.6 | 15.7 60.3 205 10 5 11.0 6.0
9750 15.5 59.9 275 11 6 9.7 5.3 | 16.5 61.7 200 8 4 9.9 5.4
9500 16.2 61.2 275 11 5 7.6 4.2 | 17.2 63.0 200 7 4 8.6 4.7
9250 16.6 61.9 280 10 5 6.1 3.3 | 17.8 64.0 200 6 3 6.5 3.6
9000 17.2 63.0 280 10 5 9.4 5.2 | 18.3 64.9 195 5 2 7.5 4.1
8750 17.9 64.2 285 9 5 10.9 6.0 | 18.9 66.0 190 3 2 7.5 4.1
8500 18.6 65.5 285 9 5 9.5 5.2 | 19.5 67.1 165 1 1 8.3 4.5
8250 19.3 66.7 290 8 4 8.2 4.5 | 20.1 68.2 140 1 1 9.0 5.0
8000 19.9 67.8 290 8 4 9.2 5.0 | 20.8 69.4 105 1 0 9.3 5.1
7750 20.6 69.1 290 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 21.5 70.7 095 1 0 9.8 5.4
7500 21.3 70.3 290 8 4 9.8 5.4 | 22.2 72.0 090 1 0 10.1 5.5
7250 22.1 71.8 290 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 23.0 73.4 085 1 0 10.5 5.8
7000 22.8 73.0 290 8 4 9.7 5.3 | 23.8 74.8 075 1 0 10.0 5.5
6750 23.5 74.3 295 8 4 9.8 5.4 | 24.5 76.1 070 1 0 9.2 5.0
6500 24.3 75.7 295 8 4 10.2 5.6 | 25.2 77.4 065 1 0 9.7 5.3
6250 25.0 77.0 295 7 4 10.6 5.8 | 25.9 78.6 060 1 0 10.4 5.7
6000 25.8 78.4 295 7 4 9.5 5.2 | 26.7 80.1 050 1 0 9.6 5.3
5750 26.5 79.7 295 7 4 11.3 6.2 | 27.4 81.3 045 1 0 11.2 6.2
5500 27.6 81.7 295 7 4 17.5 9.6 | 28.4 83.1 045 1 0 16.2 8.9
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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