491
FXUS65 KBOU 041131
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
531 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH COUNTRY.
- INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH A RISE IN SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE, INCLUDING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. I'M NOT SURE IF THIS PATTERN WOULD
TECHNICALLY QUALIFY AS AN OMEGA BLOCK - WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH A LARGE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN - BUT EITHER WAY MOST OF COLORADO WILL BE "BLOCKED" OUT OF
ANY MEANINGFUL PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING, PER
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SHIFT
A BIT WESTWARD. WE'LL START TO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE CREEP INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TURN TO MORE OF A S/SSW DIRECTION BY THIS
WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD BUT STILL LIMITED IN COVERAGE GIVEN ESSENTIALLY NO
LARGE SCALE/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY EARLY OR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
PATTERN WOULD STILL FAVOR A RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOME SORT
OF CUTOFF LOW OR OPEN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER OUR AREA - LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS - BUT SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH NO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES OR FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK CYCLONE STILL EVIDENT BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE DENVER METRO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
EVENTUALLY WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER DEFINED CYCLONE/SHEAR ZONE
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AT DEN/BJC WITH A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE FOR APA.
THERE'S STILL A LOW END CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE IS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS LESS CONVECTION. THE PREVIOUS PROB30S WEREN'T ADJUSTED AT
THIS POINT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE SETTLING ON DRAINAGE FOR MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...HIRIS
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