804
FXUS65 KBOU 062013
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
213 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
FAVORED MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM, WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWN
OR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF COOLDOWN NEXT WEEKEND?
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
COLORADO REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY AND A LARGE TROUGH OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO AND
TRANSPORT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST
OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS IS YIELDING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK. OVER
COLORADO, SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKS SOMEWHAT SUBSIDENT. THIS LINES
UP WITH MODEL OUTPUT, WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS A COUPLE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
PUSHED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH NEAR FORT COLLINS AND THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER CAMS INDICATE AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
ON MONDAY, THE SET-UP WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH. FLOW ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS THE JET OFF TO THE WEST MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SLIDES OVER
COLORADO, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING
AND LIKELY PROVIDING LIFT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST
LIFT ENDS UP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MLCAPE WILL BE LOWER, BELOW
1000J/KG, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUB-SEVERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE THAT'S
BEEN OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTH, BECOMING ELONGATED
AND STRETCHING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
OVER COLORADO, WE'LL SEE ZONAL FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ZONAL. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER TUESDAY FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE AND UNDER
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE COOLING IS SUBTLE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
AGAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO REACHING
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, EYES ARE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. SO
FAR, MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
EACH MODEL RUN BEING VERY DIFFERENT. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, AT LEAST
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR
CLOSED LOW. FOR COLORADO, THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG. AS IT STANDS NOW, MOST MODELS KEEP THE
TROUGH TOO FAR NORTH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. GIVEN THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST SEEMS APPROPRIATE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NE AND E WINDS 07-12 KTS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AT KBJC
AND KDEN RESPECTIVELY WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS, AND ARE ANTICIPATED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND DIRECTIONS
BECOME MORE OUTFLOW-DRIVEN.
INGREDIENTS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR 21Z OVER
THE FOOTHILLS, PUSHING NE INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR 22-23Z. WHILE
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR DEN (~20-30% CHANCE), IT'S MORE
LIKELY THAT THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED TO
THE N AND NW OF THE DENVER METRO, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
TO NW ARRIVAL GATES FOR KDEN. HOWEVER, THE OUTFLOW POTENTIAL FOR
THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES (ESPECIALLY KBJC AND KDEN) ARE CERTAINLY
MORE SUBSTANTIAL. FOR THIS REASON, A TEMPO WAS INTRODUCED FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. OUTFLOW DIRECTIONS WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR A NW
DIRECTION ASSUMING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
EXPECT A RETURN TO SW DRAINAGE FLOW LATER THIS EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE 13-14Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. A DENVER CYCLONE IS
FAVORED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND WILL PROMOTE E/NE FLOW FOR DEN IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS SET TO RETURN AFTER 21-22Z
MON FOR THE DENVER METRO AREA.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BM/SCHNELL
AVIATION...BRQ
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