365
FXUS65 KBOU 120823
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY, THEN UNSEASONABLY WARM ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT
SOME UPTICK OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THESE WEE
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOLER WEATHER TODAY, ALTHOUGH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER
DIVIDE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE AIRMASS IS LESS STRONGLY CAPPED.
A FEW OF THESE HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DRIFT ONTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS AS USUAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
WE'LL SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY DEVELOPING
ALONG/EAST OF A LIMON TO STERLING LINE. THAT DOES OFFER UP SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES. LEE TROUGHING INDEED
LOOKS SLOW TO DEVELOP, AND THUS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MORE THAN MOST MODELS
ADVERTISE. WHILE DENVER AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR IS STILL SHAPING UP
TO BE QUITE HOT (LOWER 90S), SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY
HOLD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WHILE WE'VE TRIMMED THOSE
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, FURTHER TRIMMING IS QUITE
LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE MORNING STRATUS AND
DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. REGARDING CONVECTION, THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS ANOTHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE STATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO >150% OF NORMAL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, AND THUS A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. THEY WILL LIKELY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN LOCALLY DRIER AIRMASS. AT THIS
TIME, THE PROSPECTS OF THESE TAPPING INTO THE RICHER AIR OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALSO SEEMS SLIM.
FOR MONDAY, IT STILL LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH MORE PRONOUNCED LEE
TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. REGARDING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, THE PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS
ACROSS COLORADO, BUT MAY END UP BEING PUSHED TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST
FOR HIGHER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. POPS ORIGINATING FROM MODEL
BLENDS WERE STILL RATHER AGGRESSIVE BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE HIGHER COVERAGE SHIFT WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE I-76 CORRIDOR,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EASTWARD SCOURING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. ON TUESDAY, THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVERTISED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME, A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, LENDING ITSELF TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
LOOKING TO COOL INTO THE 70S, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF HIGHS
HOLDING BELOW 70F ON THE PLAINS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD GET INTO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEAK
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AS MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
WYOMING. WE'LL STILL NEED A WEAK FRONT OR TWO TO HELP OUR UPSLOPE
IN ORDER TO SEE HIGHER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE, BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN IN OUR FAVOR HERE FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. TRENDS WOULD THEN BE FOR DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WEAK PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL BRING VRB WINDS IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE BY 08Z AT KDEN
WITH A PUSH OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO KAPA BY ~09Z, THEN WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND TURN MORE NORTHEAST (MORE VRB AT KBJC AND KAPA), BEFORE
TAKING ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT BY 15Z-18Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY STARTING 21Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS LOOK
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE THAN FRIDAY, A FEW MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 30KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY NEAR KAPA.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SE-S BUT COULD BE GUSTY
TO ~20 KTS DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM SHOWERS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE.
WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN TO FAIRLY NORMAL S-SW BY 05Z-06Z SUNDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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