443
FXUS65 KBOU 131133
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
533 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEK, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AS WELL TEMPORARY
DRYING ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE OF
MOISTURE/COOLING WAS ORIGINATING FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT, WE'LL BE HEATING UP AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. SUMMER-LIKE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE FRONT
RANGE AND I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH HIGHS IN THE METRO AREAS REACHING
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WARMING
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, GIVEN THE WEAK SURGE NOTED
AT THE PRESENT TIME AND ALSO LACK OF LEE TROUGHING. A LOT OF THE
DETAILS HINGE ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
BUT WE DO SEE COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS CLOSER TO 80F) OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER. WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION, WE DO EXPECT A LATE
DAY/EVENING SURGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. GIVEN WE'LL LIKELY WARM DRY ADIABATICALLY TO
550 MB AND DCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 1500 J/KG, THE MAIN THREAT
FROM ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD
BE GUSTY MICROBURSTS. PEAK WINDS COULD EASILY REACH 50 MPH GIVEN
THE DCAPE. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST (VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL) AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS AS AN ATTRIBUTE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE DEEPEST PLUME
SHIFTS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-76. AT THE SAME TIME, MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING (STILL VERY WARM!),
AND KEEP A WEAK CAP IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. WE DO GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET, SO THAT COULD HELP CARRY SOME CONVECTION
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT,
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SLIP FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH WE STILL THINK THEY
MAY BE TOO WARM. WHILE DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS STILL LIE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS, FORECAST EXPERIENCE WOULD
SUGGEST MANY LOCATIONS OF THE PLAINS WOULD MORE LIKELY (>60%
CHANCE) STAY IN THE UPPER 60S. OF COURSE THIS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY
ON EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL STRATUS. THAT COOLING ALSO MEANS WE'LL
BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE MUCH INSTABILITY, AND ANY OF THAT WOULD
HAVE TO COME FROM THE MID LEVELS AND/OR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT AS THE BEST PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS NOW
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT MAY CHANGE AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWER APPROACH OF
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IN FACT, THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECASTS LATER THIS WEEK, WITH THURSDAY NOW TRENDING TO BE THE
WETTEST DAY (AS HINTED TO YESTERDAY). HOWEVER, THAT TROUGH IS
SLOWING SO PERHAPS WE COULD SEE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
S-SW WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SE
15Z-17Z, AND THEN MORE EASTERLY BY 18Z-20Z. WIND SPEEDS AT KDEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-14 KTS AFTER 21Z.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TO POTENTIAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION. WE DO SEE GREAT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN THE TEMPO VRB G35KTS, AS DCAPE GROWS TO 1500 J/KG AND
WE'LL LIKELY REACH FULL MIXING TO THE HIGH CLOUD BASES (NEAR
16,000 MSL) GIVEN STRONG HEATING. TODAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
LATER CONVECTIVE DAY, WITH ANY THREAT (PROB30) HOLDING OFF TIL
22Z-23Z, AND THEN GREATEST THREAT (TEMPO) 00Z-03Z. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF DCAPE, THERE'S A SLIGHT (15-20%) CHANCE OF A BRIEF
G45 KTS IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN BY/SHORTLY AFTER 03Z MONDAY AND RETURN TO
FAIRLY NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AREA (PROB30) AFTER 13Z MONDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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