694
FXUS65 KBOU 141126
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
526 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STILL VERY WARM TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE STORMS. MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN REST OF THIS WEEK, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGHEST OPPORTUNITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN (50-70%), AND A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK
WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS COLORADO IN THESE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THESE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT, MOST
OF THESE WILL WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THAT STRONGER FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRYING BEHIND OUR FIRST SHORTWAVE, SO THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY DECREASING AFTER THIS EARLY MORNING
DISTURBANCE. THAT SAID, WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 500 J/KG OR LESS) OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPE AND PLAINS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-76. THAT'S WHERE
WE'LL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%), BUT LOWER POPS (10-20%)
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM GIVEN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, AND INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZES. IN FACT, SOME GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW
GUSTS (OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS) TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLY REACHING
BOULDER. THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR
90F ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR ONE LAST TIME THIS SEASON (DENVER HAS
HAD A TOTAL 65 90F DEGREE DAYS, THE 4TH MOST 90S SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1872).
COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOW MUCH COOLER FOR TUESDAY
IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE LATEST DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THUS STRATUS POTENTIAL OR EXTENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE LACKING, SO WE'LL LIKELY HAVE MORE
SUNSHINE AND THUS BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO MEANS OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AT LEAST IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WILL BE LIMITED. MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD FARE BETTER
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE GIVEN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BUILDS AGAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER RIDGING OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS MEANS WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LIKELY PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ONCE AGAIN, THE HIGHEST SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL OCCUR FOR THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE PLAINS RESIDE IN A MORE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION GIVEN WARMING ALOFT BUT SOME
MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE.
THURSDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 150-200% OF NORMAL, SO CAN'T RULE OUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE,
ESPECIALLY IF WE ARE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS.
THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, AS THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH EVENTUALLY LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, THIS PERIOD REMAINS RATHER
BROAD-BRUSHED AT THIS POINT, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE AREA, AND SOME OF THESE
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING ENHANCED SW-W GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. WE'LL KEEP
THE PROB30 IN THE FORECAST TIL AROUND 16Z, BUT ALSO ADDED GUSTY
WINDS TO 20+ KTS IN THAT PROB GROUP. CEILINGS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE
6000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT ABOUT THE WINDS
BECOMING W-NW (>60% CHANCE) BY 15Z-16Z, GIVEN PASSAGE OF
DISTURBANCE AND SUFFICIENT DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT OFF THE FRONT RANGE.
MOST MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF THAT
15Z-19Z, BUT THEN POTENTIALLY BECOMING VARIABLE (30% CHANCE)
19Z-24Z VERSUS A CONTINUATION OF W-NW (30% CHANCE) OR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY (40% CHANCE).
ALSO, WHILE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH DCAPE. AS A
RESULT, WE'LL KEEP THE PROB30 WITH VRB G30KTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE
21Z-01Z PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 06Z TUESDAY, WHICH
WOULD BRING A LOW THREAT (20% CHANCE) OF STRATUS IMPACTS FOR THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY N WINDS TO AROUND 20-25
KTS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT, THEN DECREASING BY 10Z-12Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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