767
FXUS65 KBOU 141818
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1218 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STILL VERY WARM TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE STORMS. MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN REST OF THIS WEEK, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGHEST OPPORTUNITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN (50-70%), AND A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK
WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS COLORADO IN THESE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THESE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT, MOST
OF THESE WILL WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THAT STRONGER FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRYING BEHIND OUR FIRST SHORTWAVE, SO THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY DECREASING AFTER THIS EARLY MORNING
DISTURBANCE. THAT SAID, WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 500 J/KG OR LESS) OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPE AND PLAINS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-76. THAT'S WHERE
WE'LL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%), BUT LOWER POPS (10-20%)
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM GIVEN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, AND INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZES. IN FACT, SOME GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW
GUSTS (OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS) TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLY REACHING
BOULDER. THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR
90F ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR ONE LAST TIME THIS SEASON (DENVER HAS
HAD A TOTAL 65 90F DEGREE DAYS, THE 4TH MOST 90S SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1872).
COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOW MUCH COOLER FOR TUESDAY
IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE LATEST DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THUS STRATUS POTENTIAL OR EXTENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE LACKING, SO WE'LL LIKELY HAVE MORE
SUNSHINE AND THUS BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO MEANS OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AT LEAST IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WILL BE LIMITED. MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD FARE BETTER
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE GIVEN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BUILDS AGAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER RIDGING OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS MEANS WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LIKELY PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ONCE AGAIN, THE HIGHEST SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL OCCUR FOR THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE PLAINS RESIDE IN A MORE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION GIVEN WARMING ALOFT BUT SOME
MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE.
THURSDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 150-200% OF NORMAL, SO CAN'T RULE OUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE,
ESPECIALLY IF WE ARE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS.
THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, AS THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH EVENTUALLY LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, THIS PERIOD REMAINS RATHER
BROAD-BRUSHED AT THIS POINT, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES SHOW SOME CHANNELS OF
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS RESIDE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT. MEANWHILE, THE PREVAILING
WINDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HAVE
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THIS TAF PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HANGING ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST,
AND ADDED A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WESTERLY GUSTS OCCASIONALLY MAKING THEIR WAY ONTO THE AIRFIELDS.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TODAY'S WIND FORECAST AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL WE COULD END UP BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BY 21/22Z, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO,
WHICH IS PORTRAYED IN THE TAF. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INSTABILITY ON
THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR TS POTENTIAL HAVE KEPT THE SHRA OVER TSRA,
BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM (10-15% CHANCE).
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL TURN WINDS
TO THE NORTH BY ~6Z AT KDEN/KBJC, FOLLOWED BY KAPA ABOUT AN HOUR
LATER. GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS BETWEEN
7-9Z, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR KBJC/KAPA, THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME
AT KDEN TOO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF THERE AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH STRATUS POTENTIAL
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER THIS
MORNING, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT OR AROUND 7,000 FEET
AGL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN THAT 7-9Z TIME FRAME.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON, ONCE AGAIN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...9
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