058
FXUS65 KBOU 011743
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1143 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNSHINE RETURNS TODAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE
TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
- WARMER AND DRIER FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MID-NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BORDER WITH AMPLE MOISTURE INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER LINCOLN, MODERATE
TO LIGHT OVER WASHINGTON, AND LIGHT OVER FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN
ELBERT COUNTY WHERE DUAL POL STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THE
COMMUNITIES OF PUNKIN CENTER AND KUTCH SHOWS POTENTIALLY NEAR 4" HAS
FALLEN. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, AND AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.50" COULD FALL, ESPECIALLY IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SOME
CAMS DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES, BUT BASED ON THE CAMS RECENT PERFORMANCE WE DON'T TRUST
THESE SOLUTIONS VERY MUCH. NONETHELESS, WE INCLUDED A 15% CHANCE FOR
A LIGHT SHOWER TO MEAGER TOWARDS DENVER THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST, CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DAY CONTINUES THURSDAY PROVIDING SOME TRUE SUNSHINE
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PLAINS AND THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 50S AND 60S.
AFTER A RATHER INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED FORECAST EARLY THIS WEEK,
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR US TURNS MUCH MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD FOR
THIS PERIOD. THIS WEEKEND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE FAVORING
DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR, DENVER METRO, AND EASTERN PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AREA WIDE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS REACHING THE UPPER 80S. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 KTS RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL TAKE DOWN TEMPERATURES MAKING
FOR A COOLER SUNDAY FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY THE PATTERNS GETS A TOUCH MORE
INTERESTING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN
ALOFT. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE MOISTURE FILLS IN. TUESDAY
WE CURRENTLY HAVE 20-30% ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. AT THIS TIME
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A FEW MEMBERS
PROVIDING RAIN FOR THE I-25 AND URBAN CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATE PWATS IN THE 0.6-0.7 RANGE, BUT LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS, SO ANY CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAIN IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE DRY STAGNANT PATTERNS
LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD INDUCING UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD LOOKING TAFS FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD, BUT
MONITORING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG IMPACTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE SHORT TERM, ACARS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
AT OR ABOVE 11,000 FT MSL, WHILE SATELLITE SHOWS GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE NORTH. WHILE WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATO CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING, FOR THE MOST PART IT APPEARS IT
WILL ONLY BE SCT ABOVE 5,000-6,000 FT AGL. WE DO THINK THE
MAJORITY OF ANY BKN REDEVELOPMENT AND ILS REQUIREMENTS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO SOUTH OF KDEN. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 00Z. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY 20Z-00Z, AND THEN SE-S
WITH AN ENHANCED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY 03Z-06Z.
FOR OVERNIGHT, WE DO EXPECT ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR HYBRID
ADVECTION/RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. SINCE IT'S IN ALMOST DUE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WE EXPECT THIS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. HOWEVER, A WEAK
CYCLONE/SHEAR ZONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN TYPICAL. THAT MEANS THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANY FOG/STRATUS WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KDEN, BUT ENOUGH THREAT
ON THE FRINGE OF THE WEAK CYCLONE TO BRING FOG TO THE VICINITY
NORTHWEST OF KDEN. THUS, WE'LL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF VCFG IN THE
TAF 12Z-15Z, BUT PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE AIRPORT ARE
ONLY ABOUT 20%.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHNELL
AVIATION...20
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