486
FXUS65 KBOU 012351
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
551 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AS
THE LAST STORM SYSTEM EXITS AND WEAKENS TO THE EAST. THIS MEANS
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES (COOLEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR). HOWEVER, A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND HYBRID
ADVECTION/RADIATION WILL MEAN SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. FOR THE MOST PART, THESE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
CHEYENNE RIDGE, BUT A WEAK CYCLONE ALSO SUPPORTS A RISK OF PATCHY
FOG ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR NORTH OF DENVER TO FORT COLLINS. A
TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS UNDER THE
RIDGING, WITH THE STRONGEST WARMUP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HIGHS
FOR METRO DENVER SHOULD PUSH 80F, WHILE INVERSIONS WILL STILL BE
A LITTLE STRONGER FARTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. MOST FOOTHILLS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, AND MOSTLY 50S TO MID 60S IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, WE'LL TACK ON SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO IMPROVED MIXING, DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH A DRY AUTUMN
AIRMASS DOMINATING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.
SLIGHT MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE COLUMN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY SLIP A COUPLE DEGREES IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY, THE DOMINATING RIDGE MEANS
MORE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH RETURNING BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST
INTO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES THERE, WHICH MEANS WE'LL
BE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS BY NEXT MONDAY (DENVER'S RECORD IS
87F SET IN 2024).
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS STILL SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WHICH WILL OFFER UP SLIGHT COOLING AND A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENCE OF THE FLAT RIDGE
COMBINED WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ARE ALREADY TURNING SE ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO. WE EXPECT BREEZIER THAN USUAL (10-15KT) SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT AT KDEN AND KAPA, AND WEAK (<06KT) WNW-NW
WINDS AT KBJC. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20%) FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF DENVER, MAINLY WEST OF I-25, AROUND SUNRISE BUT WE DON'T
EXPECT ANY MAJOR IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING OR PERHAPS A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CYCLONE. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT A
RETURN TO SSE WINDS (~10KT) THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING ON
FRIDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...AA
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