288
FXUS65 KBOU 021741
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1141 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD. FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH A
DRY AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO, COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FROM LIMON
SOUTHWARD.
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY, BUT A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THIS FRONT, WE'LL SEE A
WELL MIXED AIRMASS AND THUS TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS. NORTHERLY BREEZES GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25. FOR
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70, WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
BUILDING UNDER THE RIDGE.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE WARMEST DAY OF OCTOBER, WITH
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. THAT PUSHES US NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE DATE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR BOTH DENVER AND FORT
COLLINS IS 87F SET IN 2024 SO WE SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THAT, BUT
BOULDER'S RECORD IS 90F SET IN 1947 AND DOUBT WE WOULD TOUCH THAT
GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES AND ONLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ONCE AGAIN,
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHOWER OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY GIVEN
SUCH STRONG HEATING AND A LITTLE MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE BY
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A WEAK STORM OR
TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A LITTLE FORCING TO WORK WITH, I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE SNEAK ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS MAINTAIN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THAT WOULD SPELL A CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD SWING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS. AT DEN AND APA, GUIDANCE
DOES HAVE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD TURN TOWARDS THE WEST WITH WEAKER SPEEDS ON SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...HIRIS
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