931
FXUS65 KBOU 030537
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1137 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE PLAINS
WITH MID 20S TO UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY FROM LIMON SOUTHWARD. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THE PLAINS, 20-30 KTS,
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THESE
GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE
AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE HIGH COUNTY
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES HEAT UP AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD FOR DENVER. CURRENT
FORECASTED TEMPERATURE IS 86 AND THAT WOULD PUT US JUST ONE DEGREE
SHY FROM THE DAILY RECORD SET IN 2024 AT 87 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE, WE
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH GREELEY NEARING 90 DEGREES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE RIDGE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A 20-30% FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
WEAK STORM ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. WITH A FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, SUCH AS CLEAR CREEK AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR PWATS IN THE PLAINS TO BE FAIRLY
LOW (0.3-0.5), BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO MAKE IT INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
MAINTAIN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR A UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN TO
SETTLE IN. THIS MEANS OUR TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING'S
ENHANCED SOUTHERLIES ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED AT THIS
TIME. CURRENTLY, A SLIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH IS OBSERVED AT
KAPA, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY, BEFORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KBJC
SHOULD HAVE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT FROM A LITTLE
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT, AND ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A
FEW HOURS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH, BRINGING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT BY
LATE MORNING (BETWEEN 16-18Z). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A
NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW 15-20 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH AN EASTERLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE EVENING AT
KDEN/KAPA, FOLLOWED BY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. KBJC SHOULD SEE A MORE NNW SHIFT IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED
BY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHNELL
AVIATION...9
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