381
FNUS75 KBOU 030848
FWSBOU
SPOT FORECAST FOR HARRIS PARK - UNIT LM...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
248 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DAYS
LEADING UP TO THE POTENTIAL BURN DAYS, WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. COMPARING THE PSF1 RAWS TO OUR
GRIDDED FORECAST FROM FRIDAY SHOWS OUR FORECAST WAS WITHIN 5% OF
THE AFTERNOON'S LOWEST RH, WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.
FOR TUESDAY, SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
FAIR BY ROUGHLY 1100. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO FALL NEAR OR OVER THE BURN LOCATION IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
ANYTHING THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR 0.01" OF RAIN AT YOUR LOCATION, BUT WE COULD SEE UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ABOUT A .10" IF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PASSES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF TIMING AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE DAY. THERE AREN'T MANY CHANGES EXPECTED TO LOW RH
VALUES, WITH 24-26% EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON (TUESDAY- THURSDAY),
AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60% EACH NIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FAIR TO GOOD EACH
MORNING BY 1100 AND BECOME POOR BEGINNING AROUND 1600 EACH DAY.
THERE IS ABOUT A 15% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWING UP TO .02" POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY'S FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS, AND THERE IS A LESS
THAN 10% CHANCE FOR ANY WETTING RAINS ALL THREE DAYS. AS STATED
ABOVE, WE WILL HAVE GAIN BETTER DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT AS
OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT EACH DAY, WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 1200.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH UNTIL 1000, THEN
NORTHWEST UNTIL 1100, THEN NORTH UNTIL 1200,
THEN NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1600, THEN
NORTH AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 1700, THEN NORTHWEST
AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900, THEN 1200 FT AGL
UNTIL 1000, THEN 3700 FT AGL UNTIL 1100, THEN
7900 FT AGL UNTIL 1600, THEN 3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200, THEN
GOOD UNTIL 1500, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600, THEN
POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........48 44 40 36 42 49 55 55 55 55 55 56
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30 30
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............44 45 48 52 57 62 65 66 64 61 60 57
RH..............53 53 51 46 37 30 26 26 29 35 37 43
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W NW N NE NE NE NE N NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 14 15 13 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 3.7 6.5 8.6 8.8 7.8 6.2 4.3 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W NW NW W SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 2 3 9 29 52 69 70 70 56 34 17
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P F G G G F P P
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
CWR.................7 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH UNTIL 1900, THEN WEST 5 TO
12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 11 MPH UNTIL 2000, THEN WEST 8
TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........57 57 57 57 57 57 22 22 22 22 22 22
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............57 53 50 47 46 45 45 44 44 43 42 41
RH..............45 50 56 60 60 63 60 60 58 57 57 59
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 6 8 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.9 13 15 16 15 12 9 8 8 8 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 4 4
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P P P P P P P P
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................8 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...11 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 1000, THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN
NORTHEAST UNTIL 1200, THEN EAST 5 TO 7 MPH
UNTIL 1700, THEN VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800, THEN 2100 FT AGL
UNTIL 1000, THEN 5600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN
9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1600, THEN 5800 FT AGL UNTIL
1700, THEN 2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 12 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN SOUTHEAST
UNTIL 1700, THEN EAST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200, THEN
GOOD UNTIL 1600, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700, THEN
POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........25 25 25 25 25 25 29 29 29 29 29 29
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............42 44 48 52 56 59 62 64 65 65 64 62
RH..............57 55 49 44 38 33 28 27 26 26 28 31
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W NW NE E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 9 10 10 12 12 13 14 14 12 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.7 1.1 2.1 4.0 6.2 8.0 8.9 9.0 8.1 5.8 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W S SE SE SE SE SE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 6 9 17 32 56 72 80 81 73 46 20
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P F G G G G F P
FORECASTER...BONNER
REQUESTED BY...FUELS AFMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622978.0/BOU
.DELDT 10/03/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JARRED.GORDON@USDA.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page