210
FXUS65 KBOU 031817
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1217 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD STICK
AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING THINGS WARM AND DRY FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A FEW HOURS OF DRIER AIR
(RH<20%) AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS)
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. AS SUCH, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S-70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE LOW 80S
FOR THE PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. TOMORROW WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID-80S ON MONDAY, REACHING NEAR-
RECORD VALUES FOR DENVER, AND THEN DROP BY A FEW DEGREES AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
ON TUESDAY, SO WE'VE KEPT POPS AT 20-30% FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED OVER PARK AND CLEAR CREEK COUNTIES. AFTER
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
SETTLE BACK IN, KEEPING WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY WARM AND DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S FOR THE
PLAINS.
AS OF THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS, THE RIDGE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, THERE'S STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS, AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EARLIER,
WHILE SOME HAVE IT STICKING AROUND A LITTLE LATER INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND SPEEDS WITH STEADILY
INCREASE OVER THE COMING HOURS, FAVORING A NNE DIRECTION WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING 20 KTS AT TIMES AT KDEN.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE NE- ERLY FLOW (040-050) BY AROUND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD, POTENTIALLY NEARING 25 KTS.
EXPECT RELATIVELY QUICK WEAKENING AND VEERING TOWARDS SE FLOW
BETWEEN 00-02Z, BEFORE SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED
OVERNIGHT. SAID DRAINAGE WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY, BUT SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10-14Z, CLIMBING TO 11-15 KTS FOR
KDEN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGS
AVIATION...BRQ
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