457
FXUS65 KBOU 040450
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUN AND
THEN WILL WEAKEN SOME ON MON. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW JUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLD HIGH
BASED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER PARK COUNTY SUN AFTN. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON MON, ONCE AGAIN THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT, CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLD HIGH BASED SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MEANWHILE, WITH RISING 850-700 MB TEMPS
ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AS READINGS REACH THE MID 80'S TO
AROUND 90.
ON TUE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC OF HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER IN THE AFTN. OVER NERN
CO, IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
BY WED, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WNW. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE
GFS DOESN'T. OVERALL, ANY HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
RATHER ISOLD. ONCE AGAIN HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR THU AND FRI, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
BY NEXT SAT, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE WSW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE, THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS TO WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE BY LATE SUN. THE ECMWF INTENSIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT
QUICKLY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. AT THIS POINT, REALLY
HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS WARM AND
DRY ON SAT WITH HIGHS FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR SUN,
THERE COULD BE A CHC OF PRECIP IN THE MTNS LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION. MEANWHILE, WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BEFORE
STARTING TO WEAKEN AND TURNING MORE E/NE. WINDS AT KAPA AND KBJC
WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, BECOMING
S/SE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS AT KDEN WILL GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SETTLING
BACK AS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN AT KAPA AND KDEN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...AP
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