265
FXUS65 KBOU 051749
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1149 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH
RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON MONDAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE (15-30% CHANCE) FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WILL
BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
CLEAR, SUNNY SKIES GREET US THIS MORNING AS WE HEAD INTO WHAT SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT'S BEEN
OVERHEAD THE LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE ROCKIES,
KEEPING SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE AREA. THANKS TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS (850-700MB) AND THOSE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
80S FOR MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PLAINS, WITH HIGH TEMPS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER ON OCTOBER 5 IS 87F,
AND IT'S LIKELY (~70%) THAT WE'LL AT LEAST TIE THAT RECORD TODAY.
TOMORROW'S TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL, THOUGH A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS TO SOME EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, MAINLY IN PARK AND CLEAR CREEK COUNTIES. THE
REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, SUNDAY SHOULD BE WHEN WE START TO
COOL BACK OFF, WITH A COOLER, POSSIBLY WETTER PATTERN SETTLING IN BY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. WHILE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH, THERE'S A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT PULLS IN, BOTH OF WHICH WILL AFFECT WHAT WEATHER IMPACTS
WE SEE NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INTERESTINGLY, THE LATEST ECMWF RUNS
HAVE THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE RACHEL GETTING
DRAGGED TO THE NORTHEAST AND PULLED INTO THE AREA ALONG THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS
HURRICANE RACHEL ON A NORTHWESTERLY PATH, AWAY FROM ANY INTERACTION
WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH COULD MEAN WE SEE LESS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING AT DEN BUT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT (~6 KTS) AND
VARIABLE WITHIN THIS HOUR. BY 20Z/21Z, A MORE EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT SHOULD ARRIVE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
WIND PATTERN THIS EVENING. SIMILARLY TO THIS MORNING, DRAINAGE
WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER, 12-15 KTS, BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGS
AVIATION...MAI
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