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FXUS65 KBOU 052325
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
525 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH
RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON MONDAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE (15-30% CHANCE) FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WILL
BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
CLEAR, SUNNY SKIES GREET US THIS MORNING AS WE HEAD INTO WHAT SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT'S BEEN
OVERHEAD THE LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE ROCKIES,
KEEPING SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE AREA. THANKS TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS (850-700MB) AND THOSE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
80S FOR MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PLAINS, WITH HIGH TEMPS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER ON OCTOBER 5 IS 87F,
AND IT'S LIKELY (~70%) THAT WE'LL AT LEAST TIE THAT RECORD TODAY.
TOMORROW'S TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL, THOUGH A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS TO SOME EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, MAINLY IN PARK AND CLEAR CREEK COUNTIES. THE
REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, SUNDAY SHOULD BE WHEN WE START TO
COOL BACK OFF, WITH A COOLER, POSSIBLY WETTER PATTERN SETTLING IN BY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. WHILE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH, THERE'S A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT PULLS IN, BOTH OF WHICH WILL AFFECT WHAT WEATHER IMPACTS
WE SEE NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INTERESTINGLY, THE LATEST ECMWF RUNS
HAVE THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE RACHEL GETTING
DRAGGED TO THE NORTHEAST AND PULLED INTO THE AREA ALONG THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS
HURRICANE RACHEL ON A NORTHWESTERLY PATH, AWAY FROM ANY INTERACTION
WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH COULD MEAN WE SEE LESS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
~10% CHANCE OF A VIRGA SHOWER THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE SLOWLY TURNING TO SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE LATER THIS
EVENING AND STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT 10-12 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE FOR KDEN AND KAPA. KBJC SHOULD KEEP A
WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW MIDDAY AND
THEN SLOWLY TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
DRAINAGE TOMORROW EVENING. THERE WILL BE A ~20% CHANCE FOR A VIRGA
SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGS
AVIATION...MV
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