682
UXUS97 KBOU 090005
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1805 MDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 76.9 F/25.0 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1214 FT/MIN (6.2 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 18316 FT MSL (13018 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 86.0 F/30.5 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1045 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 11520 FT MSL (6222 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 10/10..... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... NO CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 21758 FT MSL (16460 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 10/10........ POOR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:04:00 / 18:29:19 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 11 HR 25 MIN 19 SEC (685 MIN 19 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 12:46:39 MDT... 43.64 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 10/09/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 14676 FT MSL (9378 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 16356 FT MSL (11058 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 16907 FT MSL (11610 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -2.9
K INDEX......................... +12.5
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.9 -83.0 295 32 16 2.4 1.3 M M M M M
45000 -59.9 -75.8 295 34 17 3.5 1.9 M M M M M
40000 -54.3 -65.7 285 19 10 4.0 2.2 M M M M M
38000 -51.9 -61.4 290 10 5 4.1 2.3 M M M M M
36000 -49.4 -56.9 360 2 1 4.1 2.3 M M M M M
34000 -45.4 -49.7 065 5 3 8.1 4.4 M M M M M
32000 -40.5 -40.9 075 7 4 8.0 4.4 M M M M M
30000 -35.6 -32.1 085 4 2 8.4 4.6 40.4 104.7 7.9 M M
29000 -32.5 -26.5 120 1 1 8.4 4.6 39.7 103.5 7.4 M M
28000 -30.0 -22.0 225 2 1 8.1 4.4 39.3 102.8 7.2 M M
27000 -27.9 -18.2 245 4 2 7.0 3.8 38.2 100.8 6.4 M M
26000 -25.8 -14.4 255 7 3 7.0 3.9 37.2 98.9 5.6 M M
25000 -23.7 -10.7 255 9 5 7.0 3.9 36.2 97.2 4.9 M M
24000 -21.6 -6.9 255 10 5 7.1 3.9 35.2 95.4 4.1 M M
23000 -19.5 -3.1 245 12 6 7.1 3.9 34.2 93.6 3.3 M M
22000 -17.4 0.7 245 13 7 7.1 3.9 33.3 92.0 2.6 M M
21000 -15.2 4.6 240 14 7 7.3 4.0 32.4 90.3 1.9 M M
20000 -13.0 8.6 235 15 8 7.3 4.0 31.5 88.7 1.2 M M
19500 -11.9 10.6 235 15 8 7.3 4.0 31.1 88.0 0.8 M M
19000 -10.8 12.6 235 15 8 7.5 4.1 30.7 87.3 0.5 M M
18500 -9.7 14.5 235 16 8 7.6 4.2 30.3 86.6 0.2 M M
18000 -8.6 16.5 235 16 8 7.7 4.2 30.0 86.0 -0.2 1190 6.0
17500 -7.4 18.7 230 16 8 8.6 4.7 29.7 85.5 -0.4 1138 5.8
17000 -6.1 21.0 230 16 8 8.6 4.7 29.5 85.1 -0.6 1086 5.5
16500 -4.9 23.2 230 17 9 8.1 4.4 29.3 84.7 -0.8 1034 5.3
16000 -3.7 25.3 225 17 9 8.0 4.4 29.0 84.2 -1.1 984 5.0
15500 -2.5 27.5 225 17 9 8.4 4.6 28.7 83.7 -1.4 934 4.7
15000 -0.5 31.1 220 17 9 9.0 4.9 28.5 83.3 -1.7 853 4.3
14500 0.8 33.4 220 17 9 9.1 5.0 28.4 83.1 -1.8 798 4.1
14000 2.1 35.8 220 17 9 9.1 5.0 28.3 82.9 -1.9 743 3.8
13500 3.5 38.3 220 16 8 8.9 4.9 28.2 82.7 -2.0 688 3.5
13000 4.7 40.5 215 15 8 8.6 4.7 28.0 82.4 -2.3 636 3.2
12500 6.0 42.8 215 14 7 8.6 4.7 27.8 82.0 -2.5 584 3.0
12000 7.2 45.0 215 13 7 8.4 4.6 27.6 81.6 -2.8 533 2.7
11500 8.4 47.1 215 12 6 8.3 4.6 27.4 81.3 -3.0 483 2.5
11000 9.5 49.1 215 11 6 7.5 4.1 27.1 80.7 -3.4 434 2.2
10500 10.6 51.1 220 10 5 5.3 2.9 26.7 80.1 -3.8 386 2.0
10250 10.9 51.6 220 9 5 4.7 2.6 26.3 79.3 -4.2 371 1.9
10000 11.4 52.5 220 9 5 8.6 4.7 26.1 78.9 -4.5 348 1.8
9750 12.0 53.6 220 8 4 9.0 4.9 26.0 78.8 -4.6 322 1.6
9500 12.6 54.7 225 8 4 8.2 4.5 25.9 78.7 -4.7 295 1.5
9250 13.1 55.6 225 7 4 6.3 3.4 25.7 78.3 -4.9 272 1.4
9000 13.6 56.5 225 7 3 6.5 3.6 25.4 77.8 -5.2 252 1.3
8750 14.1 57.4 225 6 3 7.4 4.1 25.2 77.4 -5.4 229 1.2
8500 14.6 58.3 225 6 3 7.1 3.9 25.0 77.1 -5.7 207 1.0
8250 15.1 59.2 220 5 3 7.3 4.0 24.8 76.7 -5.9 184 0.9
8000 15.6 60.1 220 5 3 6.6 3.6 24.6 76.4 -6.1 161 0.8
7750 16.1 61.0 215 5 3 5.5 3.0 24.3 75.8 -6.4 140 0.7
7500 16.5 61.7 215 5 2 5.4 2.9 24.0 75.2 -6.8 121 0.6
7250 16.9 62.4 220 4 2 5.4 3.0 23.7 74.6 -7.1 102 0.5
7000 17.3 63.1 225 4 2 5.8 3.2 23.4 74.0 -7.5 83 0.4
6750 17.6 63.7 235 4 2 4.3 2.4 23.0 73.5 -7.8 64 0.3
6500 17.8 64.0 245 4 2 -1.4 -0.8 22.4 72.4 -8.5 53 0.3
6250 17.4 63.3 260 4 2 -5.6 -3.1 21.4 70.5 -9.5 55 0.3
6000 17.1 62.8 270 4 2 -0.2 -0.1 20.3 68.6 -10.6 57 0.3
5750 17.1 62.8 290 5 2 -8.8 -4.8 19.5 67.2 -11.4 52 0.3
5500 15.2 59.4 265 4 2 -39.2 -21.5 17.0 62.6 -14.0 100 0.5
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
10/09/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 10/09/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +0.4 | CAPE... +1.9 LI... +0.7
CINH... -1.4 K INDEX... +15.5 | CINH... -11.5 K INDEX... +13.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.0 -83.2 290 31 16 2.6 1.4 | -64.0 -83.2 285 31 16 2.6 1.4
45000 -59.7 -75.5 290 31 16 3.8 2.1 | -59.5 -75.1 285 30 16 4.3 2.4
40000 -54.0 -65.2 285 20 10 3.8 2.1 | -53.0 -63.4 275 19 10 3.8 2.1
38000 -51.5 -60.7 265 8 4 3.7 2.0 | -51.2 -60.2 250 13 7 3.0 1.6
36000 -49.2 -56.6 170 7 3 3.8 2.1 | -49.2 -56.6 195 13 7 3.1 1.7
34000 -45.2 -49.4 150 10 5 7.9 4.3 | -45.4 -49.7 185 15 8 7.7 4.2
32000 -40.5 -40.9 150 11 6 7.9 4.3 | -40.8 -41.4 180 17 9 7.7 4.2
30000 -35.7 -32.3 155 10 5 8.1 4.5 | -35.9 -32.6 180 18 9 8.4 4.6
29000 -33.2 -27.8 165 9 5 8.1 4.5 | -33.3 -27.9 180 18 9 8.4 4.6
28000 -30.8 -23.4 170 9 5 8.2 4.5 | -30.8 -23.4 185 17 9 8.6 4.7
27000 -28.6 -19.5 180 8 4 7.0 3.8 | -28.6 -19.5 185 17 9 6.9 3.8
26000 -26.5 -15.7 190 7 4 7.0 3.8 | -26.5 -15.7 190 16 8 6.9 3.8
25000 -24.4 -11.9 205 7 4 7.0 3.9 | -24.5 -12.1 190 15 8 6.9 3.8
24000 -22.3 -8.1 215 8 4 7.2 4.0 | -22.3 -8.1 200 15 8 7.5 4.1
23000 -20.2 -4.4 225 10 5 7.2 4.0 | -20.1 -4.2 205 15 8 7.6 4.2
22000 -18.0 -0.4 230 12 6 7.3 4.0 | -17.8 -0.0 215 16 8 7.6 4.2
21000 -15.9 3.4 230 13 7 7.2 3.9 | -15.6 3.9 220 17 9 7.5 4.1
20000 -13.2 8.2 230 14 7 7.2 4.0 | -13.3 8.1 220 18 9 7.5 4.1
19500 -12.2 10.0 230 15 8 7.2 3.9 | -12.2 10.0 220 19 10 7.5 4.1
19000 -11.1 12.0 225 15 8 7.9 4.3 | -10.6 12.9 225 19 10 7.5 4.1
18500 -9.9 14.2 225 15 8 7.9 4.3 | -9.5 14.9 225 19 10 7.5 4.1
18000 -8.7 16.3 225 16 8 8.2 4.5 | -8.4 16.9 225 19 10 7.7 4.2
17500 -7.5 18.5 225 16 8 8.4 4.6 | -7.2 19.0 225 19 10 7.9 4.3
17000 -6.2 20.8 220 16 8 8.5 4.6 | -6.0 21.2 225 19 10 7.9 4.4
16500 -4.9 23.2 220 16 8 8.8 4.8 | -4.8 23.4 220 18 10 8.7 4.8
16000 -3.6 25.5 220 16 8 8.8 4.8 | -3.5 25.7 220 18 9 8.7 4.8
15500 -2.3 27.9 220 15 8 9.0 4.9 | -2.2 28.0 220 17 9 8.7 4.7
15000 -1.0 30.2 220 15 8 9.0 4.9 | -0.9 30.4 220 17 9 8.7 4.8
14500 0.4 32.7 220 14 7 8.8 4.8 | 0.3 32.5 220 16 8 8.8 4.9
14000 1.7 35.1 220 14 7 8.7 4.8 | 1.7 35.1 220 15 8 9.0 5.0
13500 3.0 37.4 220 13 7 8.7 4.8 | 3.0 37.4 220 14 7 9.0 4.9
13000 4.3 39.7 220 13 6 8.8 4.8 | 4.3 39.7 220 13 7 8.8 4.8
12500 5.6 42.1 220 12 6 8.8 4.8 | 5.6 42.1 225 12 6 8.8 4.8
12000 6.9 44.4 220 11 6 8.8 4.8 | 6.9 44.4 225 11 6 8.8 4.9
11500 8.1 46.6 220 11 5 8.7 4.8 | 8.2 46.8 225 10 5 8.8 4.8
11000 9.4 48.9 220 10 5 8.1 4.4 | 9.5 49.1 230 10 5 8.5 4.6
10500 10.6 51.1 220 9 5 5.4 3.0 | 10.8 51.4 230 9 5 4.2 2.3
10250 10.8 51.4 220 9 5 4.4 2.4 | 10.9 51.6 230 9 5 5.5 3.0
10000 11.4 52.5 225 9 4 9.6 5.2 | 11.7 53.1 230 9 4 12.3 6.7
9750 12.1 53.8 225 8 4 10.7 5.9 | 12.5 54.5 230 8 4 10.6 5.8
9500 12.9 55.2 225 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 13.3 55.9 230 8 4 10.5 5.8
9250 13.4 56.1 220 7 4 5.9 3.3 | 14.0 57.2 230 7 4 7.2 3.9
9000 13.8 56.8 220 7 4 6.8 3.7 | 14.5 58.1 230 7 4 7.9 4.4
8750 14.5 58.1 220 7 3 9.3 5.1 | 15.2 59.4 230 7 3 10.4 5.7
8500 15.1 59.2 220 6 3 8.0 4.4 | 16.0 60.8 230 6 3 9.3 5.1
8250 15.6 60.1 220 6 3 6.9 3.8 | 16.6 61.9 225 6 3 8.0 4.4
8000 16.1 61.0 215 6 3 6.7 3.7 | 17.2 63.0 225 6 3 8.1 4.5
7750 16.6 61.9 215 6 3 7.6 4.2 | 17.8 64.0 220 6 3 9.7 5.3
7500 17.2 63.0 220 5 3 6.0 3.3 | 18.5 65.3 220 5 3 8.4 4.6
7250 17.5 63.5 220 5 3 4.0 2.2 | 19.0 66.2 215 5 3 6.2 3.4
7000 17.8 64.0 220 5 3 4.7 2.6 | 19.5 67.1 210 5 3 7.1 3.9
6750 18.2 64.8 225 5 3 5.4 3.0 | 20.2 68.4 205 5 2 11.6 6.4
6500 18.5 65.3 235 5 3 1.4 0.8 | 21.1 70.0 200 4 2 11.8 6.5
6250 18.4 65.1 240 5 3 -2.1 -1.1 | 21.9 71.4 200 4 2 9.9 5.4
6000 18.4 65.1 240 5 2 -0.2 -0.1 | 22.6 72.7 200 4 2 9.6 5.3
5750 18.4 65.1 240 5 2 -0.8 -0.4 | 23.4 74.1 200 4 2 13.3 7.3
5500 18.1 64.6 230 4 2 -5.5 -3.0 | 24.8 76.6 200 4 2 23.9 13.1
10/09/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 10/09/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +12.1 LI... +0.9 | CAPE... +32.1 LI... -0.4
CINH... -72.0 K INDEX... +14.4 | CINH... -62.8 K INDEX... +24.5
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.4 -82.1 280 33 17 2.3 1.3 | -63.4 -82.1 275 32 17 2.5 1.4
45000 -59.3 -74.7 280 32 17 4.7 2.6 | -59.1 -74.4 270 32 17 4.6 2.5
40000 -52.0 -61.6 270 24 12 3.0 1.7 | -51.9 -61.4 270 28 15 4.1 2.2
38000 -50.4 -58.7 250 19 10 2.7 1.5 | -49.5 -57.1 255 25 13 3.9 2.1
36000 -48.8 -55.8 220 18 9 2.6 1.4 | -47.2 -53.0 240 23 12 3.9 2.1
34000 -45.4 -49.7 205 20 11 7.6 4.2 | -43.9 -47.0 225 24 12 6.4 3.5
32000 -40.8 -41.4 195 24 13 7.6 4.2 | -40.1 -40.2 215 26 14 6.4 3.5
30000 -36.1 -33.0 195 25 13 8.1 4.5 | -36.0 -32.8 210 27 14 7.2 3.9
29000 -33.6 -28.5 190 25 13 8.1 4.5 | -33.3 -27.9 205 26 14 7.2 3.9
28000 -30.6 -23.1 190 24 12 8.0 4.4 | -31.2 -24.2 205 26 13 7.2 4.0
27000 -28.5 -19.3 190 22 12 6.9 3.8 | -29.2 -20.6 205 26 13 6.6 3.6
26000 -26.4 -15.5 190 21 11 6.9 3.8 | -27.2 -17.0 210 26 13 6.6 3.6
25000 -24.4 -11.9 195 20 10 6.9 3.8 | -25.2 -13.4 210 27 14 6.7 3.7
24000 -22.1 -7.8 195 20 10 7.9 4.4 | -23.0 -9.4 215 27 14 8.4 4.6
23000 -19.7 -3.5 200 21 11 7.9 4.4 | -20.4 -4.7 215 27 14 8.5 4.7
22000 -17.4 0.7 205 22 11 7.9 4.4 | -17.9 -0.2 220 27 14 8.6 4.7
21000 -15.0 5.0 210 22 11 8.1 4.5 | -15.7 3.7 225 24 12 7.4 4.1
20000 -12.5 9.5 215 23 12 8.1 4.5 | -13.5 7.7 230 20 11 7.6 4.2
19500 -11.3 11.7 220 23 12 8.1 4.5 | -12.5 9.5 235 19 10 7.7 4.3
19000 -10.1 13.8 220 24 12 7.7 4.2 | -11.4 11.5 240 17 9 8.4 4.6
18500 -9.0 15.8 225 23 12 7.4 4.1 | -10.1 13.8 240 15 8 8.9 4.9
18000 -7.9 17.8 230 22 11 7.4 4.1 | -8.8 16.2 240 13 7 9.1 5.0
17500 -6.8 19.8 230 22 11 7.6 4.2 | -7.6 18.3 240 12 6 7.9 4.3
17000 -5.7 21.7 235 21 11 7.6 4.2 | -6.4 20.5 235 12 6 8.0 4.4
16500 -4.6 23.7 235 20 10 7.8 4.3 | -5.2 22.6 235 12 6 8.2 4.5
16000 -3.4 25.9 240 19 10 8.0 4.4 | -4.0 24.8 230 11 6 8.3 4.6
15500 -2.3 27.9 240 18 9 8.1 4.5 | -2.7 27.1 225 11 6 8.6 4.7
15000 -1.1 30.0 240 17 9 8.5 4.7 | -0.5 31.1 220 11 6 9.9 5.4
14500 0.7 33.3 240 16 8 8.6 4.7 | 0.9 33.6 220 10 5 9.6 5.2
14000 2.0 35.6 240 15 8 8.6 4.7 | 2.3 36.1 215 10 5 9.2 5.0
13500 3.3 37.9 240 14 7 8.7 4.8 | 3.7 38.7 215 10 5 9.2 5.0
13000 4.6 40.3 235 13 7 8.7 4.8 | 5.1 41.2 210 10 5 9.4 5.1
12500 5.9 42.6 235 12 6 8.8 4.8 | 6.5 43.7 210 10 5 9.3 5.1
12000 7.2 45.0 230 11 6 9.0 4.9 | 7.8 46.0 205 10 5 9.3 5.1
11500 8.5 47.3 225 10 5 9.0 4.9 | 9.2 48.6 205 10 5 9.5 5.2
11000 9.8 49.6 225 8 4 8.5 4.7 | 10.5 50.9 200 10 5 7.8 4.3
10500 11.1 52.0 225 7 4 5.7 3.1 | 11.6 52.9 200 10 5 11.6 6.4
10250 11.4 52.5 225 6 3 6.5 3.6 | 12.7 54.9 200 9 5 12.4 6.8
10000 12.1 53.8 220 6 3 10.9 6.0 | 13.3 55.9 200 9 5 8.0 4.4
9750 12.9 55.2 220 6 3 9.8 5.4 | 14.0 57.2 195 9 5 9.2 5.0
9500 13.6 56.5 220 5 3 9.9 5.4 | 14.7 58.5 195 9 5 8.9 4.9
9250 14.2 57.6 215 5 3 8.2 4.5 | 15.3 59.5 195 9 5 8.8 4.8
9000 14.8 58.6 215 5 3 8.7 4.8 | 16.0 60.8 195 8 4 8.7 4.8
8750 15.5 59.9 215 5 2 9.9 5.4 | 16.7 62.1 190 8 4 9.0 4.9
8500 16.2 61.2 215 5 2 9.7 5.3 | 17.4 63.3 190 7 4 8.9 4.9
8250 17.0 62.6 215 5 2 11.3 6.2 | 18.0 64.4 190 7 3 8.4 4.6
8000 17.9 64.2 215 4 2 10.4 5.7 | 18.6 65.5 185 6 3 7.9 4.3
7750 18.5 65.3 215 4 2 8.4 4.6 | 19.2 66.6 185 5 3 7.8 4.3
7500 19.2 66.6 215 4 2 9.4 5.1 | 19.8 67.6 185 4 2 8.2 4.5
7250 19.9 67.8 215 4 2 10.5 5.8 | 20.4 68.7 190 3 2 9.4 5.1
7000 20.7 69.3 220 4 2 10.5 5.8 | 21.1 70.0 195 3 2 9.7 5.3
6750 21.5 70.7 220 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 21.8 71.2 205 3 1 9.0 4.9
6500 22.2 72.0 220 4 2 10.0 5.5 | 22.5 72.5 210 2 1 9.1 5.0
6250 23.0 73.4 220 4 2 11.0 6.0 | 23.2 73.8 220 2 1 9.5 5.2
6000 23.8 74.8 220 4 2 10.1 5.6 | 23.9 75.0 235 2 1 9.6 5.2
5750 24.6 76.3 220 4 2 12.0 6.6 | 24.6 76.3 245 2 1 9.2 5.1
5500 25.7 78.3 220 4 2 19.5 10.7 | 25.2 77.4 255 2 1 7.9 4.3
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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