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FXUS65 KBOU 161746
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY/SUNNY WEATHER TODAY WITH ANOTHER FREEZE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DENVER METRO AREA TONIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT OBS SHOW TEMPERATURES STARTING TO DROP OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS, AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
CLEARED OUT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FRIDAY FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS & I-25 CORRIDOR, WHERE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS (GUSTS OF ABOUT 15-
20MPH) IN THE NORTHEASTERNMOST PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PLAINS & I-25 CORRIDOR. DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP
LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS, WHILE
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERNMOST PLAINS SHOULD AGAIN SEE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S-LOW 30S. DESPITE THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, WE HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS
UNTIL WE KNOW TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES. SHOULD A KILLING FREEZE
HIT TONIGHT (LOW TEMPS <= 28F), WE WOULD NOT ISSUE ANOTHER PRODUCT;
HOWEVER, IF LOWS DON'T QUITE REACH THAT 28 DEGREES OR LESS
THRESHOLD, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING ON
THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY, KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND PULLING IN SOME
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY OVER THE PLAINS
AND URBAN CORRIDOR, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BRING IN
OUR NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THIS FAR OUT, THOUGH, THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AS IS THE LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH AXIS. WE'LL SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND AND SEE IF THERE'S
ANY BETTER AGREEMENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND ACROSS MODELS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH NO AVIATION
IMPACTS. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING CLOCKWISE THIS EVENING TO DRAINAGE WINDS.
KBJC SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
COMPARED TO THE OTHER SITES. TOWARDS THE MORNING (~14-17Z), WINDS
WILL TURN VARIABLE BEFORE SETTLING INTO ANOTHER LIGHT E/SE FLOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...AGS
AVIATION...SCHNELL
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