664
FXUS65 KBOU 171143
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
543 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY BUT CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ANOTHER FREEZE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA.
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WE'RE OFF TO A CHILLY START TO THE EVENING ACROSS THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AND SOME LOCALIZED PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF
OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN THE PLAINS HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW
FREEZING, AND A HARD FREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THE AIRMASS IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO EVEN MUSTER A CLOUD DURING THE DAY.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY, AS A WEAK
CUTOFF LOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE, EVENTUALLY DRIFTING
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE ONLY
NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S.
THAT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY,
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE CHANCES FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
STORM SYSTEM INCREASE. A STRONG CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY, WHICH THEN SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS COLORADO BY LATE WEEK OR SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. AS IS
STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS ALMOST ALL OF THE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OF COURSE, THIS POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK OUT, AND IT'S LIKELY WE'LL SEE
SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL RELAX
AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN
RETURN TO DRAINAGE TONIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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