422
FXUS65 KBOU 221939
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
139 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST, BUT COOLER, WETTER WEATHER
LIKELY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
- AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM-UP LIKELY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SPECIFICALLY
PARK COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA TRY AND MOVE OFF O THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW, THE RAIN IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE GROUND, BUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN AROUND 12,500FT TO 13,000FT TODAY.
DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS
DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AT UPPER LEVELS, PUTTING 700MB WINDS AROUND 25KTS TO
40KTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE COLUMN COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON, CREATING GUSTS AROUND
25 TO 40MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-76.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY,
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BY MID SATURDAY MORNING,
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY FROM
THE SOUTH, LEADING TO STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS THE INITIAL
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD START TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH COVERING
MORE OF OUR AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS QG
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND
RAIN AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WHEREVER THAT FRONT SETS UP FOR
SATURDAY (WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA). AMOUNTS
WILL DECREASE THE FURTHER NORTH WE GO FROM THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP CLOSER TO 9,000FT AS THE COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOWER END (<2 INCHES),
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOSQUITO RANGE
AREA.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A REENFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR MONDAY, BEFORE WE START TO
SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK . THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. THE EURO IS A BIT SLOWER
TRACKING EAST, WHICH KEEPS UPPER FORCING AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER,
EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE COULD ALSO SEE A
FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES ENDING
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, LEADING TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO STRONGER (10-12 KTS) SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LATER ONSET TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE DELAYED THE PROB30 BACK
TO 22Z FOR DEN (21Z AT APA AND BJC). HAVE INTRODUCED ANOTHER
PROB30 BETWEEN 03/04Z - 06/07Z, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER
THAN USUAL FOR THIS SECOND ROUND. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
7000FT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH.
TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
PERIODS OF GUSTS UP TO 25-28 KTS, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 15Z - 23Z.
SOME MODELS HINT AT STRONGER SPEEDS, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...MAI
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