474
FXUS65 KBOU 241816
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1216 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN,
MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- STILL A RATHER UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS... BUT INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A COOL START TO NEXT WEEK, BUT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND LIKELY
BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ANOTHER DAY CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND'S STORM SYSTEM, AND ALMOST ALL
OF THE DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAIN UNCLEAR.
WE'LL START WITH WHAT WE KNOW. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING, SOMETIME NOT TOO
LONG AFTER SUNRISE FOR MOST OF THE DENVER METRO. UNLIKE MANY OF
OUR COOL SEASON FRONTS, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOW
LEVELS, MEANING THAT LOW/MID CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING BEFORE STRATUS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY ONLY
REBOUND INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OF INTEREST IS SPINNING OVER
FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, AND SHOULD TRACK OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. TODAY'S TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS
A SLOWER (FURTHER WEST) AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW. AS A RESULT,
THE DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE ALSO ENDS UP A TOUCH FURTHER WEST.
MOST OF TONIGHT'S CAMS THROW A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH MODEST
(~0.05-0.25") AMOUNTS AS FAR WEST AS THE FOOTHILLS AND AS FAR
NORTH AS A LONGMONT - GREELEY LINE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
GLOBAL/REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH
WITH THIS POTENTIAL, NOR ARE MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THIS
TIME. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING IF EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS FOLD
WITH THE 06/12Z GUIDANCE LATER TONIGHT. OF NOTE - SOME OF THESE
WETTER SOLUTIONS ALSO BRING IN FAVORABLE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
INTO PARK COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY AM.
BY SUNDAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE REALLY LIKES THE IDEA OF SPINNING UP
A WELL-DEFINED DENVER CYCLONE. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
WHERE CLEAR SKIES DEVELOP, WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS REMAIN SOCKED IN STRATUS
AND SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN, ONE NOTABLE TREND IS TO HAVE THIS LOW BE
STRONGER/BETTER DEFINED, WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
NOTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ENDS UP A BIT MORE DEFINED AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IS A
TOUCH STRONGER, WHILE QG ASCENT IS PLACED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN, GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PLACING MORE SUBSTANTIAL QPF OVER OUR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS, WHILE MANY OF
THIS EVENING'S CAMS KEPT MOST OF THE MEANINGFUL QPF CLOSER TO THE
CO/WY BORDER. OUR PREFERENCE HERE WAS CLOSER THE NBM/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN, THOUGH I WOULD ANTICIPATE MORE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AT THE VERY LEAST, THERE'S TWO
WELL-DEFINED PERIODS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN (AND MOUNTAIN SNOW) THIS
WEEKEND FOR THOSE LOOKING TO SEE THEIR FAVORITE HYDROMETEORS FALL
OUT OF THE SKY.
ONCE THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY, WE'LL RE-
ENTER ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND ON MONDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY UNDER A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HIGHS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70F.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT WEEK. MOST
MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX (OR SIMPLY MESSY) PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES/CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH A COUPLE WEAKER SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTS WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A COUPLE PERIODS OF
COOLER/CLOUDIER WEATHER BASED ON THE TRACK OF THOSE. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT
WEEKEND... BUT IT'S DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE THAT INTO AN ACTUAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE'LL LET THIS CURRENT WEEKEND PASS BY
BEFORE WORRYING TOO MUCH ABOUT IT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
CAUSING LOWER CEILINGS AT KBJC. CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE AT
KDEN AND KAPA WITHIN THE LAST HOUR, BUT WE EXPECT SOME CLOUD
DECKS TO FILL BACK IN ONCE AGAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND
THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT, WINDS WERE GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 MPH AT
TIMES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND
WE ONLY EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH AT MOST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE LATEST CAMS, THERE
IS NOW A TEMPO AT KDEN WHERE THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
REMAIN LIGHT (UNDER 12 KTS). BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 2000-3000 FT AGL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER CEILINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. AS WE APPROACH SUNDAY MORNING, THE CEILINGS AT KDEN AND KAPA
START TO LIFT BUT LIKELY STAY AROUND 5000 TO 7000 FT AGL FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. SOME
CLOUDS BELOW THESE HEIGHTS STILL LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
KBJC LIKELY STAYS WITH A CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT AGL FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
FINALLY, THE WINDS TOMORROW LOOK HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS THAT A
DENVER CYCLONE/DCVZ WILL FORM NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WE ARE MOST
CONFIDENT THAT KBJC WILL STAY WITH NORTH WINDS TOMORROW. AT THIS
TIME, KDEN LOOKS TO HAVE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE DCVZ STAYING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AIRPORT. THERE IS
A ~40% CHANCE THAT THE DCVZ MAKES IT WEST OF KDEN/KAPA BRINGING
SOME GUSTIER SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THOSE TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LOOK TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ONCE AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...MV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page