588
FXUS65 KBOU 250700
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
100 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO... SHIFTING TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY MUCH OF UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT.
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE SHOWS A FEW BATCHES OF
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT. THERE'S ALSO BEEN SOME DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PARK COUNTY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS NOTED ACROSS A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THAT
AREA. SOME SNOW SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SLOW JOURNEY NORTHEASTWARD ON
SUNDAY, LEADING TO ONE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE'S STILL A FEW PARTS OF THE FORECAST
THAT REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.
FIRST, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ACROSS
THE METRO, AS DEEPER STRATUS HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT... AND
MOST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY CLEARS OUT THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS A DENVER
CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE
A FEW 60-65F TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DEEPER
CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPS. SECOND, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONG VORT MAX
IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, PIVOTING FROM
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS,
BUT MODELS PLACE THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE LOW AS FAR WEST AS
GREELEY (HRRR) TO AS FAR EAST AS BURLINGTON BY 09Z MONDAY. MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THIS PERIOD IS NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. THE WHOLESALE
MEAN SOLUTION WOULD BE FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHERE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WOULD COMBINE WITH
DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS LIKELY ENDS UP SOMEWHERE ALONG OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE (30-50%) OF
SOME HALF INCH RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER.
ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY, WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS RATHER QUIET, WITH WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER LIKELY UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS
MOST DAYS. SOME MOISTURE COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT WOULD AGAIN FAVOR THE TERRAIN TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
OUR CWA. THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN HAZY, THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE
STORM TRACK WOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS OVER THE
PAST HOUR ACROSS ALL THE DENVER TAF SITES, AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE BECOME PERSISTENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ONTO A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURSDOWN TO
AROUND 2,000 FEET AGLTONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE RETURN OF IMPACTFUL CEILINGS.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, A DENVER CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES THAT BRINGS LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. AS USUAL WITH CYCLONES, DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE SHEAR ZONE FORMS
THAT WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF IT,
AND A NORTHERLY COMPONENT ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE. AT THIS TIME, WE
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO DEVELOP SOMETIME IN
THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY MORNING AT KDEN/KAPA, WITH KBJC
TURNING TO THE NORTH, WHERE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXACT WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MOVEMENT OF
THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT WE DO EXPECT A NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY TRANSITION SOMETIME BETWEEN 17-19Z. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE CYCLONE, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING (UNDER 8KTS), WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 21Z-23Z, WHERE THEY COULD
INCREASE TO ~11-13KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, WHERE WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-14KTS.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY EVENING AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO, WHERE A PROB30 IS IN PLACE FROM
23Z-5Z AT KAPA, AND 0Z-5Z AT KDEN/KBJC. MUCH LIKE SATURDAY, WE
WILL BE BATTLING DOWNSLOPE DRYING, SO WE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IF THINGS CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING AND
LOWERING AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, WITH CEILINGS DROPPING AS LOW AS
2,000 FEET AGL WITH PASSING SHOWERS, AND LIKELY SEEING THEM LOWER
DOWN TO AROUND 200-500 FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...9
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page