560
FXUS65 KBOU 251937
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
137 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER SOME OF THE HIGH PASSES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
- WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY MUCH OF UPCOMING WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND, BUT ODDS
FAVOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COLORADO ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST UTAH, WITH A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ONE WAS
NOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON THE HEELS OF AN 80 KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. OTHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT APPEARS BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL
GENERATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT
AS THERE IS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EACH. THAT SUPPORTS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WOULD SEE LOWER BUT STILL SCATTERED COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SPEED MAX IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BY THE TIME THAT SHORTWAVE
ORGANIZES AGAIN, THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WE STILL HAVE
ABOUT A 30-50% CHANCE OF SEEING A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH THOSE ODDS DECREASING RATHER
QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING MOST OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
DENVER METRO. IN FACT, OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST (ESSENTIALLY
50TH PERCENTILE) HAS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR DENVER METRO
AREA AND ONLY ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF A MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, WE STILL THINK THE NORTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS (E.G.
PARK/NORTHERN GORE/MEDICINE BOW RANGES AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL
PARK) WOULD SEE A 1-4" SNOW, WHILE THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUMMIT COUNTY WOULD SEE A
DUSTING TO 2". BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ON SOME OF THE HIGHER
PASSES, BUT OVERALL A PRETTY LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING. HOWEVER, IT MAY TAKE
SOME TIME TO CLEAR AS THE PLAINS WILL BE SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING, AND MIXING WILL BE SLOW GIVEN
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND STRONGER INVERSIONS. THUS, ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY, A STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP, LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER, MORE SUNSHINE, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS WITH MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING A COUPLE MORE DEGREES AND HIGHS PUSHING NEAR
70F ON THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN NEXT WEEKEND'S WEATHER
AS SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A
SUBTROPICAL PUSH COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS FRIDAY BUT THE MAIN
IMPACTS OF THIS FIRST WAVE WOULD LIKELY STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. A LARGER TROUGH ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE PINEAPPLE
CONNECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING IT'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AREAS
OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO WOULD BE MOST PRONE FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ANOTHER TRICKY TAF PERIOD AHEAD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
DENVER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WAS PREVALENT AT THE
SITES THIS MORNING ERODING WITH SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS STILL
IN THE VICINITY OF KBJC FOR ABOUT THE NEXT HOUR. WINDS SHOULD
STAY NORTH AT KBJC ALL AFTERNOON AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. THE
LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SHEAR ZONE/DCVZ A FEW MILES
FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS... KEEPING KAPA AND
KDEN WITH NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 5-15 KTS.
THERE IS STILL A ~20% CHANCE THAT KDEN HAS A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS (UP TO 15 KTS) LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT KAPA. THIS WOULD
OCCUR IF THE SHEAR ZONE IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH PROB30S STARTING AT 0/1Z AND LASTING THROUGH 10Z FOR KDEN AND
KAPA. KBJC'S HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO END AROUND 6Z.
ANY SHOWERS WOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, ANY SHOWER COULD LOWER CEILINGS TO ABOUT
4 OR 5 SM. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE SHOWERS
PASS. AS FOR THE WIND DIRECTION, WINDS LOOK TO BE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST AS WE GET INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
LATER TONIGHT, THE ATTENTION TURNS TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND FOG.
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL BE CONTENDING WITH
LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG AT ALL THREE SITES AS EARLY AS 5-7Z LATER
THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARDS 10-14Z AS THE PERIOD
OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE MOST IMPACTFUL
CONDITIONS AS LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES CAUSING
MVFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY COULD GET AS LOW AS 3/4 SM TO 2 SM
DURING THIS PERIOD WHEN A TEMPO IS IN PLACE WHICH COULD EVEN
CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR IN THE
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED, FIRST LIFTING AT
KAPA, THEN KDEN, AND FINALLY AT KBJC. AT KDEN, A SCT DECK AROUND
2000 TO 4000 FT AGL LOOKS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO
THE EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND STAY UNDER 12 KTS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...MV
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