825
FXUS61 KBOX 152007
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
307 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES SATURDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL ARE ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST MAY FINALLY BRING
MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THAT IS NOT SET IN STONE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
REST OF TODAY IS BREEZY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS, LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6PM.
QUIET AND SEASONABLE COOL NIGHT AHEAD FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BEING OUR DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. WHILE NOT TOO FAR
AWAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RETROGRADES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR US, NOT MUCH, OUTSIDE OF SOME
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST, MAINLY FOR THOSE LIVING
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MA. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S, SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
* GENERALLY A NICE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60
DEGREES, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
* HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A STRONGER LLJ OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. DEEP
MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AROUND 2,000 FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
20 AND 30 MPH. RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS AND NEIGHBORING WFOS. FURTHER DETAILS CAN BE SEEN IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD. A SECONDARY HAZARD ON SATURDAY IS
POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH
TIDE. HAVE OPT'D TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MA,
CAPE COD, AND ISLANDS. AS FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA, RE-
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE THE TIDES
& COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES BY
MID-NOVEMBER STANDARDS IN THE UPPER 50S IF NOT 60F. AREAS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MA REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S. CLEAR SKIES
WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RADIATE, BOUNDARY LAYER
IS WELL MIXED, STEADY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 30S, WITH URBAN CENTERS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 50S-LOWER 60S...SUN/MON/TUE/WED
* MUCH NEEDED RAIN POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI...BUT NOT SET IN STONE
DETAILS...
SUN/MON/TUE/WED...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MARITIMES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. A MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF SPRINKLE/SPOT SHOWER VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AM...BUT INSIGNIFICANT AND MAY REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.
EPS/GEFS 2 METER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED TO BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT MAKES SENSE GIVEN DRY NW FLOW AND LIMITED COLD
TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S FROM SUN THROUGH WED. SUN AND MON WILL PROBABLY BE TAD
MILDER THAN TUE & WED...BUT REGARDLESS VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NOVEMBER.
THU & FRI...
STILL QUITE THE WAYS OUT...SO NOTHING IS SET IN STONE BUT
EPS/GEFS/CMC ALL INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN
THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOMETIME. THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES AMPLIFYING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPAWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...BUT THE TRACK/TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT REMNANT TROPIC MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
AGAIN THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK/TIMING. NONETHELESS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN EXISTS SOMETIME THU INTO FRI. IT ALSO
MAY BE A CHILLY RAIN...BUT WILL NEED MUCH MORE TIME TO WORK OUT THE
DETAILS IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
21Z TAF UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WIND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, NW 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND NW 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT NW 8-12
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUES THIS EVENING, THEN
DIMINISHES TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS COULD WARRANT EXTENDING CURRENT
ADVISORIES AND THE RE-ISSUANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RI WATERS.
ROUGH SEAS FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, 4-7
FEET. SEAS LOWERING TO 3-6 FEET ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
...RED FLAG WARNING EXTENDED TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
SATURDAY: HIGH FIRE DANGER DUE TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE 20S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
THE MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE 30S. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO 6PM SATURDAY.
SUNDAY: MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S,
WITH THE CAPE AND ISLAND IN THE 50S. GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG, NW 10-20 MPH, WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MANY
AREAS, BUT WILL NEED TO COORDINATE WITH OUR STATE FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS FOR A FINAL DECISION.
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LOWER. BETTER SIGNAL FOR
A WETTING RAIN COMES INTO PLAY BY THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
* COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MA COAST; INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS FOR SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
* COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN RI & MA COAST FOR THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ON SATURDAY
AND REACHING NEAR 12 FT MLLW AT BOSTON. LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE IS
AVERAGING AROUND 1.0 FT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE ALONG N AND NE FACING
BEACHES.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE LITTLE
BIT LOWER THAN MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHER TIDES, A 1.2 FT SURGE
WILL PUSH LOCATIONS LIKE FOX POINT TO 7.2/7.3 FT INTO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER AT
HIGH TIDE IF SURGE VALUES REACH AROUND 1 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>024-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
RI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
232-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOOLEY
MARINE...FRANK/DOOLEY
FIRE WEATHER...FRANK/DOOLEY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/DOOLEY
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