026
FXUS61 KBOX 160538
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1238 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES SATURDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL ARE ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST MAY FINALLY BRING
MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THAT IS NOT SET IN STONE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
950 PM UPDATE...
* DRY & CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S & 30S
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE TEMPS A BIT EAST
OF THE CT VALLEY AS THERE IS ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR A MODEST WIND
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THOSE AREAS THAT DO DECOUPLE WILL LIKELY
SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S, OTHERWISE EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S. A
FEW LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES MAY
SPILL INTO EASTERN MA AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
* GENERALLY A NICE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60
DEGREES, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
* HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A STRONGER LLJ OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. DEEP
MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AROUND 2,000 FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
20 AND 30 MPH. RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS AND NEIGHBORING WFOS. FURTHER DETAILS CAN BE SEEN IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD. A SECONDARY HAZARD ON SATURDAY IS
POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH
TIDE. HAVE OPT'D TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MA,
CAPE COD, AND ISLANDS. AS FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA, RE-
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE THE TIDES
& COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES BY
MID-NOVEMBER STANDARDS IN THE UPPER 50S IF NOT 60F. AREAS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MA REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S. CLEAR SKIES
WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RADIATE, BOUNDARY LAYER
IS WELL MIXED, STEADY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 30S, WITH URBAN CENTERS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 50S-LOWER 60S...SUN/MON/TUE/WED
* MUCH NEEDED RAIN POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI...BUT NOT SET IN STONE
DETAILS...
SUN/MON/TUE/WED...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MARITIMES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. A MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF SPRINKLE/SPOT SHOWER VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AM...BUT INSIGNIFICANT AND MAY REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.
EPS/GEFS 2 METER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED TO BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT MAKES SENSE GIVEN DRY NW FLOW AND LIMITED COLD
TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S FROM SUN THROUGH WED. SUN AND MON WILL PROBABLY BE TAD
MILDER THAN TUE & WED...BUT REGARDLESS VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NOVEMBER.
THU & FRI...
STILL QUITE THE WAYS OUT...SO NOTHING IS SET IN STONE BUT
EPS/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH NEEDED RAIN THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOMETIME. THE
CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AMPLIFYING VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPAWN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...BUT THE TRACK/TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT REMNANT TROPIC MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GETS PULLED
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AGAIN THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK/TIMING. NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN EXISTS SOMETIME THU INTO FRI. IT ALSO MAY BE A CHILLY
RAIN...BUT WILL NEED MUCH MORE TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS IF
THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS 5-10K FT AT TIMES ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND CAPE COD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW GUSTS 20-25 KT
TODAY, PERHAPS A FEW G30 KT HIGHER TERRAIN. NW WIND 5-15 KT
TONIGHT AND 10-15 KT SUNDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUES THIS EVENING, THEN
DIMINISHES TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS COULD WARRANT EXTENDING CURRENT
ADVISORIES AND THE RE-ISSUANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RI WATERS.
ROUGH SEAS FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, 4-7
FEET. SEAS LOWERING TO 3-6 FEET ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING EXTENDED TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
SATURDAY: HIGH FIRE DANGER DUE TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE 20S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
THE MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE 30S. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO 6PM SATURDAY.
SUNDAY: MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S,
WITH THE CAPE AND ISLAND IN THE 50S. GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG, NW 10-20 MPH, WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MANY
AREAS, BUT WILL NEED TO COORDINATE WITH OUR STATE FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS FOR A FINAL DECISION.
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LOWER. BETTER SIGNAL FOR
A WETTING RAIN COMES INTO PLAY BY THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
* COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MA COAST; INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS FOR SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
* COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN RI & MA COAST FOR THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ON SATURDAY
AND REACHING NEAR 12 FT MLLW AT BOSTON. LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE IS
AVERAGING AROUND 1.0 FT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE ALONG N AND NE FACING
BEACHES.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE LITTLE
BIT LOWER THAN MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHER TIDES, A 1.2 FT SURGE
WILL PUSH LOCATIONS LIKE FOX POINT TO 7.2/7.3 FT INTO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER AT
HIGH TIDE IF SURGE VALUES REACH AROUND 1 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
RI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/DOOLEY
FIRE WEATHER...FRANK/DOOLEY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/DOOLEY
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