322
FXUS61 KBOX 161719
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1219 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST MAY FINALLY BRING MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS ALREADY
GUSTING 20 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN HIGH POTENTIAL
OF FIRE SPREAD GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRES IN THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE GT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
SNE. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF HIGHER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
MARITIMES LOW PRES MAY SPILL INTO EASTERN MA WHERE A FEW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED, OTHERWISE A SUNNY AND MILD DAY ACROSS SNE,
ALTHOUGH A BIT BREEZY BEHIND A DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW BUT WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20-30 MPH GUSTS. 925 MB
TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO EXPECT HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPE
COD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST FROM THE GT LAKES WITH DRY AIRMASS LEADING TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, ALTHOUGH A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF SOMEWHAT
HIGHER 850-700 MB MOISTURE. MODEST N-NW LOW LEVEL JET 30-35 KT
ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND WHILE THIS WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
WE EXPECT A STEADY NW WIND 5-15 MPH WITH 20 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
MA IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE.
SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN LESS WIND, BUT A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. ANOTHER DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILE SO HIGHS WILL REACH
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
* POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK:
SUNDAY NIGHT, MID-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AND OVERALL
FORCING ARE LIMITED RESULTING IN AT MOST A SPRINKLE OR SPOT SHOWER
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT
PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE. HIGH RANGE IN
THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.
MID-WEEK AND BEYOND:
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW INDICATIONS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BROAD CONSENSUS FOR A STORM SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING (HOPEFULLY)
OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAINFALL SOMETIME IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY- FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. AS YOU CAN ALREADY TAKE FROM THE LARGE TIMEFRAME GIVEN,
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME (TIMING, TRACK,
STRENGTH). NOT UNCOMMON FOR A STORM SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT. OVERALL,
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SIGNAL FOR THE SYSTEM PAIRED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. THIS COULD MEAN POTENTIAL FOR A SOLID RAINFALL IF THE
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS IN THE RIGHT SPOT WITH MOISTURE INTACT. DETAILS
ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS (COMBO OF LOW RH &
WIND) IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
BEHIND A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDS HIGHER THAN
THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
VFR. SCT CLOUDS 5-10K FT AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA AND CAPE
COD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW GUSTS 20-25 KT TODAY, PERHAPS A FEW G30
KT HIGHER TERRAIN. NW WIND 5-15 KT TONIGHT AND 10-15 KT SUNDAY
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. LIGHT W WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OCCASIONAL NW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO
ALL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF SNE.
HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GUSTS TO 20-30
MPH COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE 15
TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
STILL QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY WITH RH VALUES LOWERING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM CAPE COD. A LITTLE LESS WIND IS
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH. WE WILL BE COORDINATING WITH OUR
STATE FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS REGARDING A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF RED
FLAG WARNINGS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK DURING THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE REACHING
NEAR 12 FT MLLW AT BOSTON. LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT WOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG N AND NE FACING BEACHES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST COASTAL MA FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SURGE VALUES AROUND 1 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
RI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.
SYNOPSIS...KJC/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...KJC/BW
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...BW/MENSCH
MARINE...KJC/MENSCH
FIRE WEATHER...KJC/MENSCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
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